In December 2020, with no fans in arenas and lines of credit and loans to owners growing, NBA commissioner Adam Silver said the league was taking a fresh look at the idea of expanding after nearly two decades.

In the three-plus years since he floated the concept, an entire industry has developed as great anticipation has built. Prospective ownership groups have been quietly raising money. Two different firms have announced planned new arenas in Las Vegas. LeBron James has openly campaigned for Silver to award him a team. All waiting for a “go” from the league.

At the Finals in June, Silver further stoked the expansion flames. He said that after getting a new collective bargaining deal done with the players, which happened last year, and securing a new national TV rights deal, which was finalized in July, that expansion would be on the agenda.

At the annual fall board of governors meeting last week in New York, Silver provided an update and said expansion would be discussed by the league “at some point this season,” though not just yet.

So when? Where? Who? Why? How?

NBA Insiders Tim Bontemps, Kevin Pelton and Brian Windhorst share all the latest intel from conversations with sources in and around the NBA on how this complicated, league-altering process could play out.

Jump to: Seattle, Las Vegas or … Mexico City?
Team owners? LeBron, Amazon execs in mix | Changing of the conferences?

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Adam Silver on NBA expansion: We are not quite ready yet

NBA commissioner Adam Silver breaks down why he and the league’s board of governors are not quite ready to discuss expansion.

When could the NBA actually have a new team or teams?

It’s a fluid and uncertain process. The NBA last announced expansion in 2002, and the Charlotte Bobcats started play in October 2004. But that turnaround isn’t a fair comparison because the league didn’t consider other cities and was replacing a relocated team (the Hornets moved to New Orleans that year), which allowed for a quick turnaround.

With Silver not yet fully committing to expanding and keeping the timeline for even beginning the process undefined, both league sources and people who are working on forming bidding groups are targeting the 2027-28 season. Though starting in 2026-27 isn’t impossible, it has become more unrealistic.

That may seem like a long time, especially for fans in cities waiting for a team. But the process will have several phases: deciding whether to expand picking cities, selecting ownership groups in what could be an expansive bidding process and allowing for the new team or teams to build up infrastructure.

Why expand now?

This is a question the league’s governors have been informally debating over the past several years and are likely headed to formally debating in the near future.

The question of expansion is ultimately an economic one. The central issue is whether bringing in new teams and diluting the shares of collective revenue, namely the media rights, is worth the short- and long-term rewards.

Currently all NBA teams own 3.3% of the league and share the billions in revenue accordingly. Spreading that over 32 teams slightly reduces the sharing, but calculated over decades, those percentage points mean large sums.

On the other hand, the expansion fee — the price the new ownership groups pay directly to the current owners for the rights to their new teams — could net teams a massive short-term windfall and also increase the league’s footprint and overall fan base, which has potentially positive long-term effects.

So will it happen?

Two key things have perhaps tipped the scales toward expansion. First, franchise valuations are in an explosion cycle. The Minnesota Timberwolves were sold in 2021 for a $1.5 billion valuation (though that sale is still pending). In the three years since, three teams have sold for more than $3 billion, including the 2023 sale for the Phoenix Suns for $4 billion.

Currently the Boston Celtics are for sale, and there are indications they could produce the highest price ever for an NBA team, which is currently held by Mat Ishbia’s purchase of the Suns. That could even further reset the market, and that is a contributing factor in the NBA’s decision to go slower on expansion and wait for that sale to happen, league sources said.

At these prices, a pair of new expansion teams could net the league north of $10 billion combined — meaning every team would receive a check for over $300 million as the new teams come into the league. That is naturally an enticing proposition and way above what Silver would’ve expected when he changed his stance on expansion back in 2020.

Depending on when a potential bidding process takes place and variables like the global economy, it’s possible forecasting $10 billion for the two teams could be conservative.

Also with the NBA agreeing to a new TV deal over the summer for $76 billion over the next 11 years, any worries over mildly diluting shared income streams has been reduced. However, that doesn’t mean it’s a guaranteed thing to happen. There are at least some owners who are skeptical of whether it makes financial sense in the long-term to expand.

Would expansion fees have any impact on the salary cap?

No. The expansion fees are paid directly to the existing owners — part of what makes the idea of expansion potentially appealing to one to them.

Do the players have any say?

The decision on whether to expand comes down to the NBA’s board of governors, which would have to vote to add two members to its group. While there are things that the National Basketball Players Association has say in — like, for example, potentially making the schedule shorter — adding teams is not one of them.

That said, the idea of adding another 30 jobs (36 including two-way contracts) is one the union would be very much in favor of, sources said.

Which cities would get teams?

Seattle and Las Vegas have been considered front-runners for some time. But it should not be assumed the NBA will definitely select them.

Why Seattle?

Seattle has been the biggest market without an NBA team since the Sonics moved to Oklahoma City in 2008 and has become more attractive from a pro sports standpoint in the interim thanks to a tech boom led by the league’s newest broadcast partner, Amazon.

For years, the issue with the NBA’s return to Seattle was the lack of a replacement for KeyArena, deemed inadequate by the league as part of the Sonics’ move. That changed in 2021 when the renovated Climate Pledge Arena opened as the home of the expansion teams NHL Kraken and WNBA Storm.

Despite the 16 years and counting since the Sonics have been gone, they remain immensely popular as fans who grew up on the teams led by Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp that reached the 1996 NBA Finals have had families of their own. A new fan-led group, Seattle NBA Fans, is launching with an event next week to showcase the city’s potential to support Sonics 2.0.

Why Las Vegas?

Sin City has become the NBA’s unofficial 31st city over the past generation, with the annual Las Vegas summer league growing over the past decade into the NBA’s version of Comic-Con, a massive event that brings hundreds of thousands of fans each July. And, on top of that, Vegas is now the annual host of the championship rounds of the league’s newly created Emirates Cup (formerly the “in-season tournament”).

It also is a city that’s seen an explosion in popularity from a sports standpoint in recent years, with the Raiders arriving from Oakland, the Aces coming from San Antonio, the Golden Knights entering the NHL as an expansion team and, assuming John Fisher can pull it off, the Athletics (eventually) coming from Oakland. As a result, the city is a natural fit as a potential second entry alongside Seattle.

Are there other cities that could try to get a team?

The widespread belief among league and team sources that we have talked to is that Seattle and Las Vegas are the logical landing points for a pair of new expansion teams. But that doesn’t mean there couldn’t be some twists and turns in the process.

If there is another city to jump into the mix, the most likely one to do so is Mexico City. The most populous city in North America, the capital of Mexico has been a consistent host of NBA regular-season games since 1992, and the 33 games played there since then are the most anywhere outside of the United States and Canada. Mexico City is home to the G League’s Capitanes and would provide the league with both another international city as well as an opening into the Latin and South American markets. However, there are a lot of logistical hurdles to overcome for an NBA team to exist there full-time.

Cities like Vancouver and Montreal have been raised as possibilities in the past, along with Kansas City and Louisville, both of which already have NBA-caliber arenas. Other cities that could potentially be home to teams, like San Jose and Austin, run into the problem of bumping up against other teams — in San Jose’s case the Golden State Warriors, and in Austin’s the San Antonio Spurs, who already play regular-season games there.

Who are potential owners in Seattle?

The Kraken’s ownership group, led by owner Samantha Holloway and her father (founding owner David Bonderman), has been preparing for a bid. That group features strong NBA ties. Bonderman has been a member of the Celtics’ ownership group since their 2002 sale, while Amazon CEO Andy Jassy and the sons of former Sonics owner Barry Ackerley are also part of Kraken ownership.

In a May letter to Kraken season-ticket holders, Holloway shared the organization was forming “a parent brand that will umbrella the Kraken brand and prepare for other big opportunities.” The Kraken are on track to formally make that announcement of a parent company along the lines of Vulcan Sports (owner of the NBA’s Portland Trail Blazers and the NFL’s Seattle Seahawks) in the near future. Additionally, they’ve utilized longtime NBA executive and Seattle native Rick Welts as an advisor, per sources. Most recently president of the Golden State Warriors, Welts began his Hall of Fame career with the Sonics, starting as a ballboy.

Chris Hansen, leader of a group whose bid to purchase the Sacramento Kings in 2013 and move them to Seattle was voted down by the league’s board of governors, is not expected to head a bid for an expansion team per sources. Hansen, who has highlighted the return of the Sonics as the primary goal of his efforts, remains ready to assist any successful Seattle bidder.

Could a Seattle team be the SuperSonics? Would they retain that franchise’s pre-2008 history?

In short: yes and yes.

The deal between Thunder ownership and the city of Seattle resolving a lawsuit over the team’s arena lease and allowing their move to Oklahoma City stipulated that the name SuperSonics and all associated logos, colors and trademark would be transferred to the owner of a new NBA team approved to play at a renovated KeyArena at no cost.

That agreement laid out the terms of shared ownership of Sonics history, including the team’s 1979 championship trophy and retired jerseys. Officially, the NBA combines the history of the two teams. For example, the league recognizes Payton as Oklahoma City’s all-time leader in games played.

The Thunder, however, do not hang any banners for the SuperSonics in Oklahoma City, and in their media guide they don’t highlight any Seattle stats — listing, for example, Russell Westbrook as the team’s all-time assists leader, rather than Payton.

Sources said if a team was to return to Seattle, the Thunder would cede the Seattle history back to the SuperSonics — just as the NBA’s Charlotte Hornets reclaimed the Charlotte-era history of the New Orleans Pelicans when Charlotte switched from being the Bobcats to the Hornets in 2014.

Who are the potential owners in Las Vegas?

There is one very obvious name here: LeBron James.

For the better part of a decade, James has been transparent about his desire to join Michael Jordan as all-time great turned team governor and become a true shareholder in the NBA. James’ off-court investment decisions, including taking an equity position with Boston Celtics, Pittsburgh Penguins and Liverpool FC ownership group Fenway Sports, have been made with this in mind.

James has continued to develop relationships with deep-pocketed sports investors like John Henry and Gerry Cardinale, who could be partners in making a bid for an expansion team. Last year, he traveled to Saudi Arabia and met with Badr bin Abdullah Al Saud, a member of the royal family and the kingdom’s minister of culture. In recent years, the Saudis have been investing in Western sport. In 2022, the NBA cleared the way for sovereign wealth funds to invest up to 20% in teams.

Whether playing in exhibition games in Vegas, winning the MVP of the first-ever NBA Cup in the city or playing there with Team USA, James has frequently spoken of his desire to own an expansion team there.

The NBA indeed has a rule that active players cannot have an ownership stake in a team. This came up in 2001, when Jordan came out of retirement and was forced to give up his share of the Washington Wizards. League sources said that because the expansion process hasn’t started yet, there haven’t been concrete discussions over the rules that would govern it, including this one.

That said, if the next expansion franchises were to start play in the 2027-28 season, that does line up nicely with the end of James’ current contract with the Lakers, which runs through the 2026-27 season.

Are there other potential owners in the mix in Las Vegas?

Former Milwaukee Bucks owner Marc Lasry is putting together a group to bid on a potential Las Vegas expansion team, sources said — one that includes WNBA legend Candace Parker, among others. There are other groups also exploring the possibility in both Las Vegas and Seattle, sources said, though until the NBA actually tips off the process and offers clarity on the price of franchises, there aren’t likely to be any formal announcements of anyone’s potential interest.

If two teams are added in the West, what will happen to the conferences?

Presuming the two new teams are awarded to Seattle and Las Vegas, they would both land in the Western Conference. That would mean that there would be 15 teams in the East and 17 teams in the West, necessitating one shifting from West to East to balance things out.

This will likely come down to a decision between three teams: the Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies. The Pelicans and Grizzlies are, geographically, the easternmost teams in the Western Conference, but also are short flights from several Western Conference opponents (each other, all three Texas teams and the Thunder).

Minnesota, meanwhile, is a little farther west, but is far more geographically isolated. The Timberwolves’ closest Western Conference opponent, by air miles, is the Denver Nuggets (680 miles). By comparison, Minnesota has five east cities (Milwaukee, Chicago, Indianapolis, Detroit and Cleveland) that are shorter trips than that, plus a sixth (Toronto) that is the exact same distance.

It would likely be a protracted fight to determine who would move east, but those facts would seem to make Minnesota the most logical choice.

What impact could expansion have on the NBA playoff format? What about the NBA Cup?

As far as the playoffs go, bumping up to 32 teams shouldn’t change anything at all. Each conference would likely add one more team, and the same rules would make sense to carry over to a post-expansion world. Ten teams would qualify for the postseason, six directly and four into the play-in tournament. Six teams, rather than five now, would go directly to the lottery.

Going up to 32 teams, however, would potentially result in positive changes for the Emirates Cup. Currently, the league splits the tournament’s group stage into six groups of five — meaning it can’t have every team play on the final day of group play, because there are odd numbers of teams in each group.

A 32-team pool to pull from would allow the NBA to mirror the 32-team World Cup format: eight groups of four teams, each of which would play each other once (or twice, depending on how long the league would like to have the group stage play out). Then, the NBA could either have 16 teams advance to the knockout portion of the tournament, taking the top two teams from each group (like the World Cup does), or it could have each group winner advance and have the same quarterfinal-semifinal-final format it does now.

Coming Wednesday: An explanation of the expansion draft process, and the Hoop Collective’s mock expansion draft.

The post How Seattle, Las Vegas and LeBron fit into the NBA’s expansion future appeared first on Patabook Sports.