“Winning isn’t everything; it’s the only thing.” — Henry Russell “Red” Sanders
If you’re reading this, chances are you’ve outlasted most of your opponents over the past 22 grueling weeks to advance to the fantasy baseball playoffs.
Congratulations! It’s an accomplishment, but your job isn’t done. In fact, it’s just beginning. Keep your eyes on the prize! That means, if there is a red-hot player available on the waivers and you have an ice-cold player sitting on your bench, dump the dead weight and make sure you get the player who can help you win.
Bowden Francis could be one of those players.
Francis spent a portion of the season jumping between Toronto’s rotation and bullpen. In 14 relief appearances, he was 3-1 with a 4.39 ERA, 6.4 strikeouts per nine, a 1.425 WHIP and .276 opponents’ average. In nine starts, the 28-year-old is 5-2 with a 3.29 ERA, 0.769 WHIP, 9.7 strikeouts per nine and a .164 opponents’ average. Overall, he is 8-3 with a 3.66 ERA, 0.992 WHIP, 24 percent strikeout rate, 10.3 percent swinging-strike rate and a .203 opponents’ average.
On the surface, he looks like just another pitcher. But it is what he has done since the All-Star break that is particularly remarkable — impressive enough to make him the most added player in ESPN leagues this week.
In his past seven appearances (six starts), Francis is 5-1 with a 1.58 ERA, 41-5 strikeout-walk rate, 11 percent swinging-strike rate and a .120 opponents’ average. Even better, he won his past four starts while maintaining a 0.62 ERA, 0.31 WHIP, 32-3 strikeout-walk rate, a 12 percent swinging-strike rate and .065 opponents’ average.
Francis took a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Angels on Aug. 24 and followed that up by taking a no-hitter into the sixth inning Thursday. Not only has he lasted at least seven innings in each of his past four starts, he allowed a total of six hits.
To say he has been hot would be a vast understatement.
Since July 29, Francis has the second-best ERA, the fourth-lowest walk rate (1.13 per nine) and 11th-best strikeout rate (29.3 percent). The 28-year-old also has the best WHIP (0.53), as well as the second-best strand rate and opponents’ average (.119).
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that this stretch is not going to last forever, but Francis has potential matchups that could work in his favor over the final month.
After facing the Phillies in his next start, Francis could face the Mets (fourth-most strikeouts in the second half), the Rangers (hitting .230 as a team since the break) and the Rays (batting .214 since the Midsummer Classic with the sixth-most strikeouts). He could finish the season against the Marlins, who have the 11th-most strikeouts since the All-Star Game.
There are no innings restrictions on Francis, he upped the usage of his splitter to dominant results thus far (his other pitches aren’t too shabby either), and he is available in 60 percent of ESPN leagues. Ride the hot hand to the promised land!
Here are some other arms who could help your squad during the final month of the season:
Before taking the mound Sunday against the Phillies, Braves rookie Spencer Schwellenbach (52.1 percent) was 2-2 with a 2.98 ERA over his previous seven starts. He struck out 12.97 per nine innings, the second-best mark in the majors from July 21 through Thursday, and limited opponents to a .208 average. He also had a 17.5 percent swinging-strike rate, second only to Blake Snell in that span.
Ryne Nelson (21.8 percent) hasn’t lost since June 26, going 4-0 with a 2.77 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 24.9 percent strikeout rate and .221 opponents’ average in his past 11 appearances (10 starts). He allowed three earned runs or less in nine of those outings.
Before taking the mound Sunday against the horror show known as the White Sox, the Mets’ Sean Manaea (57.4 percent) has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 13 of his previous 14 starts. He was 7-2 with a 2.93 ERA, 89 strikeouts, .185 opponents’ average and a 12 percent swinging-strike rate. (Two downfalls: He allowed 10 homers and 27 free passes in that stretch.)
Though Tampa Bay’s Jeffrey Springs (11.7 percent) has not lasted more than five innings in any of his starts since coming off the injured list, and has just one win, he is striking out 28 percent of the batters he faces. The lefty is 1-2 with a 3.47 ERA, 30-8 strikeout-walk rate and a 14 percent swinging-strike rate over his past five starts. He owned a 2.45 ERA with 27 strikeouts and 15 percent swinging-strike rate in his past four starts, including a 21.7 percent swinging-strike rate against the Orioles on Aug. 11 and 17.7 percent against the Mariners on Tuesday.
Big hits
Miguel Amaya C, Cubs
Hit .396 with three homers, 17 RBIs and a 1.108 OPS in 14 games before Friday. He hit .352 with a .991 OPS in 30 games since July 12.
Nestor Cortes SP, Yankees
Has won three straight decisions while maintaining a 0.44 ERA, .145 opponents’ average and 18-2 strikeout-walk rate.
Connor Norby 2B/OF, Marlins
Entered Friday with a 10-game hit streak, batting .350 with two homers, four RBIs, 13 runs, two stolen bases and a 1.072 OPS.
Ryan Walker RP, Giants
Struck out 47.2 percent of the batters he faced while limiting opponents to a .143 average over his past 12 appearances. He didn’t allow an earned run in that span and went 4-for-4 in save chances.
Big whiffs
Jackson Holliday 2B/SS, Orioles
After going 4-for-5 on Aug. 16 vs. Boston, he went 4-for-38 (.105) with no homers, four RBIs, 14 strikeouts and a .302 OPS in his next 12 games.
Kyle Schwarber OF, Phillies
Hadn’t homered since Aug. 14 and went 9-for-57 (.158) with 23 strikeouts and a .472 OPS over his past 65 plate appearances before Friday.
Jameson Taillon SP, Cubs
Allowed 24 earned runs over his previous 33 innings (6.55 ERA), eight homers and a .290 opponents’ average in his past six starts.
Francisco Alvarez C, Mets
The 22-year-old has seen his average drop from .301 on July 10 to .237 entering Friday after going 17-for-108 (.157) with two homers, seven RBIs, 35 strikeouts and a .443 OPS in his past 34 games.
Check swings
— Though he entered the weekend hitting .233 for the season, former Mets prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong was 15-for-39 (.385) with three homers, 10 RBIs, 12 runs, three stolen bases (all of which came in one game) and a 1.156 OPS in his previous 12 games. He is available in almost 90 percent of ESPN leagues.
— Tyler Stephenson (45.4 percent rostered) took a 13-game hitting streak into Friday’s action, going 20-for-51 (.392) with three homers, 10 RBIs, 13 runs and a 1.123 OPS.
— Though it won’t make up for a disappointing sophomore campaign, 2023 NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll has at least one hit in 29 of his first 36 games since the All-Star break. He has hit .260 with 12 homers, 28 RBIs, 36 runs, three stolen bases and a .964 OPS in that stretch. He also entered the weekend with an eight-game hit streak. It is a respectable run, but still not great from a top-five draft pick.
— The struggles have gotten worse for West Islip native Logan O’Hoppe, who entered Friday hitting .088 (6-for-68) with 32 strikeouts and a .298 OPS in his past 19 games. He had one hit in his past 23 plate appearances while striking out 11 times.
— Though Brandon Pfaadt is 4-1 over his past six starts with a 34-5 strikeout-walk rate, he has allowed 26 runs (24 earned) over his past 34 /₃ innings (6.29 ERA). Opponents have hit .309 against him with five homers and a .835 OPS.
Team name of the week
I See London, I See Ty France
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