The United States‘ under-23 team gave itself the chance to reach the quarterfinals of the 2024 Olympic Games men’s soccer tournament with a 4-1 win over New Zealand on Saturday.
Djordje Mihailovic, Walker Zimmerman, Gianluca Busio and Paxten Aaronson were all on target to record the biggest-ever Olympics win for the U.S. men, but the team still has work to do to qualify having lost its first game 3-0 to hosts France.
This is how Group A looks, and what the U.S. needs from its match against Guinea on Tuesday.
The top two from each group go through to the quarterfinals.
USMNT WINS vs. GUINEA
The task is clear: If USMNT wins by two-plus goals, it is guaranteed to qualify.
A one-goal victory is almost certain to be enough, but it will not automatically guarantee qualification — there are a couple of scenarios where the U.S. could still be eliminated.
If France wins or draws vs. New Zealand, France will win the group with the U.S. qualifying in second with any win.
However, if New Zealand wins vs. France, that leaves France, United States and New Zealand all on six points — places are then decided by goal differential.
If the U.S. wins by one goal and New Zealand by one, two or four-plus goals, the U.S. goes through in second.
But if the U.S. wins by one goal and New Zealand by three goals, all teams have goal differential of +1. Then it comes down to goals scored in the group.
If the U.S. wins 1-0 and New Zealand 3-0, the U.S. finishes second. If the U.S. wins 1-0 and New Zealand 4-1, the records between the U.S. and France are identical — New Zealand wins the group and France finishes second as it won the group game against the U.S. Any other three-goal margin score — e.g. 5-2 to New Zealand — and the U.S. is third on goals scored.
If the U.S. wins 2-1 (or higher-scoring one-goal margin), that moves the scenarios for New Zealand vs. France up a goal. For instance, the U.S. would be second with a 4-1 New Zealand win and 5-2 would eliminate the U.S. on the result against France.
The U.S. can still win the group if France loses and a goal differential deficit of four is overturned. For instance, if the U.S. wins 3-0 and France loses 1-0, the U.S. is first and France second.
USMNT DRAW vs. GUINEA
USMNT will finish second if New Zealand draws or loses against France.
If New Zealand beats France, the U.S. is out.
USMNT LOSES vs. GUINEA
USMNT can only qualify if New Zealand loses to France, and then it comes down to goal differential between the U.S., New Zealand and Guinea.
If the U.S. loses to Guinea by one goal and New Zealand loses by any score, the U.S. finishes second.
If the U.S. loses to Guinea by two-plus goals and New Zealand loses by any score, Guinea finishes second and the U.S. is out.
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