MIAMI — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its 2024 forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on June 1. NOAA’s report predicts an “above-average” hurricane season with 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes of category 3 or higher.
“Of note, the forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook,” said NOAA Administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad.
“All the ingredients are in place for an active season, and it’s a reason to be of concerned but not alarmed,” added National Weather Service Dir. Ken Graham.
The hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and ends on November 30, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October. An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
“We expected an above-average forecast from NOAA this year. We are all looking at the same signals. For this season, it comes down to two main factors: a developing La Niña pattern in the eastern Pacific and record-setting sea surface temperatures in the Tropical Atlantic Basin,” CBS Miami Chief Meteorologist and Hurricane Specialist Ivan Cabrera said of the forecast.
“Those two key factors are what we’re watching and if they come together as we think they will, we can expect a very active hurricane season this year,” Cabrera added.
NOAA and FEMA also provided guidance on how the public can prepare ahead of a potential storm impacting their area, as both Spinrad and Graham reminded everyone that preparedness is key.
Other 2024 hurricane season predictions
Researchers from the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project predicted in April an “extremely active” 2024 season, including 23 named storms. Previous years had an average of 14.4 named storms. Their forecast included a 62% chance of a Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall on the continental U.S. coastline, an increase from the average prediction of 43%.
Along the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, the probability jumped to 34% from 21% – which was the average likelihood from 1880-2020. Along the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle, the increase was higher. Researchers predicted a 42% probability in that area, up from an average of 27% in previous years.
Stephanie Abrams, a meteorologist from The Weather Channel, also presented a similar prediction, telling “CBS Mornings” in March that rising air and ocean temperatures globally could set the stage for an “explosive hurricane season.”
According to NOAA, four of the 15 deadliest and most destructive hurricanes ever recorded happened in the last 25 years.
A look back at the 2023 hurricane season
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season ended as the fourth busiest for most-named storms. It concluded with 20 named storms, seven of which went on to become hurricanes and of those three intensified into major hurricanes.
There were three storms that made landfall in the US. Two tropical storms made landfall, one in Texas and the other in North Carolina.
The only hurricane landfall was Idalia. It made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane on Aug. 30 near Keaton Beach, Florida, causing storm surge inundation of 7 to 12 feet and widespread rainfall flooding in Florida and throughout the southeast.
According to NOAA, four of the 15 deadliest and most destructive hurricanes ever recorded happened in the last 25 years.