Florida preps as NOAA predicts another active hurricane season

How bad could the upcoming hurricane season be? Maybe one of the busiest ever, at least judging by a key preseason forecast issued on Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its forecast for the 2024 season, which starts June 1, calling for a more active than normal season — thanks in large part to the off-the-charts high temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.

NOAA is predicting that 17 to 25 named storms could form this year, with eight to 13 powering up into hurricanes and four to seven of those reaching major hurricane status, Category 3 or higher. That’s above the average: 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Those figures are the highest ever forecast by the federal agency. In 2020, NOAA had predicted the highest number of storms of all time. That season wound up with 30 named storms, 14 of them growing into hurricanes.

This season — at least potentially — sets up to top that.

“That’s the highest forecast that we’ve had,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. “It’s reason to be concerned, of course, but not alarmed.”

It’s also the second-highest forecast the agency has ever made for accumulated cyclonic energy, a metric that takes into account the power and longevity of storms throughout the season. The only year that tops this was 2010. This year, NOAA predicts it could be 150% to 245% of normal.

“In past years when we’ve seen high ACE numbers, those have been the years with the strongest hurricanes,” said Rick Spinrad, NOAA administrator.

Last year, NOAA called for 14 to 21 named storms, six to 11 hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. The final numbers for 2023 were 20 named storms, seven of which became hurricanes and three that reached major hurricane strength. It was the fourth-most active season on record.

The ocean heat content in the main development region of the Atlantic, where the majority of storms are born, is running at levels in May that are normally seen in late August, according to a University of Miami analysis.

Another factor supercharging this season is the global atmospheric phenomenon, La Niña, which is linked to a more active season in the Atlantic. Last year, the world was experiencing the opposite effect, El Niño, which usually depresses storm activity in the Atlantic.

Despite the cooling effects of El Niño, the raw heat in the Atlantic appeared to win out, leading to another high storm year.

But this year, forecasters say, El Niño has faded and La Niña is likely to take its place this summer. As of early May, NOAA predicted there was a 49% chance La Niña could form by June to August and a 69% it could form by July to September.

The first storm name of the season is Alberto.