The Denver Nuggets host the Minnesota Timberwolves for Game 2 of their Western Conference semifinals series Monday night.
On Saturday, the T-Wolves went on the road and secured a massive Game 1 win over the Nuggets.
Can the defending champions bounce back with a Game 2 win? Or will Minnesota continue to put the league on notice, securing a commanding 2-0 series lead on the road?
Let’s dive into the matchup and make a pick.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| T-Wolves | +5.5 (-108) | +198 | o207.5 (-108) |
| Nuggets | -5.5 (-112) | -240 | u207.5 (-112) |
Timberwolves analysis
Anthony Edwards was otherworldly on Saturday night. He finished with a staggering 43 points on 17-of-29 shooting, seven rebounds, three assists, two blocks and a steal.
Averaging 33.4 points per game this postseason on elite 53-43-86 shooting splits, Edwards is a phenom ascending into rarefied air in his second trip to the playoffs.
I expect the Nuggets to double-team and trap Edwards more in Game 2, as they had no answer for him one-on-one.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope doesn’t have the strength to hang with Edwards down low, while Aaron Gordon lacks the foot speed to stay with him on the perimeter.
The Nuggets must try to get the ball out of Edwards’ hands.
Karl-Anthony Towns finished Game 1 with 20 points in 31 minutes, but his foul trouble limited his overall impact.
However, Naz Reid had a blistering 16 points on 7-of-11 shooting off the bench, and the Wolves have a real luxury with their depth in this series against a Denver team whose bench has been a weakness.
Towns and Reid will need to continue scoring efficiently to help support Edwards.
Nuggets analysis
Nikola Jokic is likely on his way to winning his third MVP award this season. While he dealt with Rudy Gobert, the expected Defensive Player of the Year, he still finished with 32 points on 11-of-25 shooting in Game 1. He also logged eight rebounds and nine assists.
He’ll need more help from his teammates in Game 2, namely Jamal Murray, who was held scoreless in the first half and finished with just 17 points as Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker played stupendous defense against him.
Murray is still dealing with a calf strain that has had him listed as questionable in recent games, and he’ll need to continue to fight through it.
Michael Porter Jr. has elevated his game this postseason, averaging 22.3 points on 54-50-74 shooting. Despite his family struggles, Porter has been laser-focused on the court and is playing the best basketball of his career.
With Gobert on Jokic and McDaniels on Murray, Porter should continue to have opportunities against smaller defenders after scoring 20 points in Game 1.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets prediction
(10 p.m. ET, TNT)
The T-Wolves didn’t have Reid or McDaniels last year – when they lost in the first round to the Nuggets in five games – and both made a significant impact in Game 1.
McDaniels missed all seven of his shots from the field and was held scoreless, but he had eight rebounds and played excellent defense. Reid had 16 points off the bench, and his late-game production was critical to securing the win.
However, expect the Nuggets to make the necessary adjustments to come away with a win in Game 2.
Home favorites are 50-35-1 against the spread (58.8%) in Game 2s after losing Game 1 as the favorite, good for an ROI of 12.2%. That trend is currently on an 8-2 run in the last 10 games, too.
Betting on the NBA?
It’s telling that the line for Game 1 closed at Nuggets -4.5 and Denver is favored by 5.5 points in Game 2 after a loss.
I suspect that’s because the Timberwolves only won by seven after shooting 71% in the second half, and bookmakers must expect that to come back down to Earth on Monday night.
I’ll buy the defending champions in this spot every time and live with the results.