It’s the first card since UFC 300, one of the best cards we have seen in ages.
That card ended with a furious first-round knockout by Alex Pereira of Jamahal Hill and a winning bet that the fight would not start in round four.
The poor read on the betting card was on Max Holloway, who absolutely blasted Justin Gaethje to be crowned the new BMF champion.
We went 6/13 on bets for UFC 300, 1/2 on bets bets, and lost 1.77 units on the 13 bets we placed.
UFC Vegas 91 has 13 fights on the card, with the prelims beginning at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN.
UFC Fight Night Vegas 91 predictions
Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez
Two of the least active flyweights in the UFC will headline this card and it’s not exactly a barn burner of a main event –– Nicolau comes in as a -185 favorite.
Nicolau will look to grapple in this one plenty as striking should favor Perez. It’s Perez’s lack of activity that makes it nearly impossible to know what kind of shape he’s in for the bout and if his skills have improved at all.
Perez has had 11 cancellations in his career, and has fought just twice since 2020.
His last time out was against top prospect Mohammad Mokaev where he came in as a massive underdog but had a solid showing in the bout despite a unanimous decision loss.
This feels like an “underdog or pass” spot for the moneyline perspective, but consistent readers know I am always going to be interested in betting a fight to go the distance at the smaller weight classes.
Flyweight fights go to decision at a 54 percent clip per FightMatrix and this one is +135 to go the full five rounds.
Nicolau in particular isn’t a big time finisher, just two in his last six fights have ended inside the distance. It’s worth a crack here.
PICK: Fight goes the distance (+135, Caesars)
Ryan Spann vs. Bodgon Guskov
One fighter that is tough to bet on as a favorite is Ryan Spann.
Spann disappointed in his last two fights as a favorite against Anthony “Lionheart” Smith and Nikita Krylov, but prior to that a solid guy to wager on pending the matchup as a big underdog.
Bogdon Guskov is a mean light heavyweight and will be looking to brawl, he’s fighting at fight camp Xtreme Couture.
Spann doesn’t offer a ton of toughness but is the better overall athlete with grappling upside, but he nearly never uses it.
Neither of these fighters are a future champion or anywhere close, but Spann really shouldn’t be a -175 favorite here.
Guskov is worth your money here against Spann, a perennial quitter and poor fight IQ guy.
PICK: Guskov ML (+160, BetRivers | by submission +1600, FanDuel)
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UFC Fight Night Vegas 91 full card picks
- Matheus Nicolau (-180) vs. Alex Perez: Fight goes the distance (+135, Caesars)
- Ryan Spann (-175) vs. Bodgon Guskov: Guskov ML (+160, BetRivers | by submission +1600, FanDuel)
- Ariane Da Silva (+136) vs. Karine Silva: Ariane Da Silva (+136, DraftKings)
- Austen Lane (+260) vs. Jhonata Diniz: Diniz ML
- Jonathan Pearce (-155) vs. David Onama: Pearce by decision (+270, BetRivers)
- Tim Means (+250) vs. Uros Medic: Means by decision (+540, BetRivers)
- Rani Yahya (+330) vs. Victor Henry: Henry wins ITD (+130, DraftKings)
- Austin Hubbard (+145) vs. Michal Figlak: Hubbard by decision (+260, BetMGM)
- DonTale Mayes (+100) vs. Caio Machado: Mayes ML (+100, FanDuel)
- Marnic Mann (-380) vs. Ketlen Souza: Pass
- James Llontrop (-410) vs. Chris Padilla: Pass
- Ivana Petrovic (-500) vs. Liang Na: Pass
- Gabriel Benitez (+200) vs. Mahesate: Benitez ML (+200 DraftKings)