The Arizona Diamondbacks battle the San Francisco Giants in some NL West action Thursday.
It’s always tough fading Logan Webb, but the Diamondbacks shouldn’t be this big of an underdog.
Diamondbacks vs. Giants odds
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 (-160) | +145 | o8 (-105) |
| Giants | -1.5 (+135) | -165 | u8 (-115) |
Diamondbacks vs. Giants prediction
(9:45 p.m. ET, NBCS-BA)
Let’s be clear: the Giants will have a formidable pitching advantage throughout the game.
Webb is a superstar. He has three above-average offerings in his sinker, changeup, and slider. He consistently produces a ground-ball rate north of 50% and avoids walks with excellent command, keeping his FIP down.
Also, the Giants bullpen is amongst the league’s best. Camilo Doval is a top-tier closer, and there’s plenty of depth behind him, especially between Tyler Rogers, Taylor Rogers and Ryan Walker.
Meanwhile, the Snakes’ bullpen is league-average at best, and high-leverage reliever Joe Mantiply is likely unavailable for this game because he’s pitched four times in the past six days.
Still, we have to take the Snakes here.
Our Action PRO model projects the Snakes win this game 43.5% of the time, implying fair moneyline odds of +130 and a considerable edge over the current market price.
Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson has a high ceiling. He’s upped the velocity on his fastball, which now comes in more than 95 mph, generating a 13 swinging-strike rate (80th percentile). He’s also added a cutter that induces a 69% ground-ball rate (89th percentile).
Throw in his above-average changeup, slider, and curveball, and Nelson has a solid five-pitch mix. He has yet to produce results (4.91 career ERA across 35 appearances), but the tools are there and the advanced pitching models love him (104 Stuff+, 107 Location+).
I also project significant positive regression for Nelson. His 5.27 ERA is juiced behind a low strand rate (67%) and high BABIP (.340). I expect him to trend toward his 4.11 expected ERA, especially with how many chases he produces (34% chase rate, 87th percentile).
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Essentially, Nelson is undervalued.
Meanwhile, the Snakes hold a significant advantage in the lineup and on defense.
Action Network senior MLB writer Sean Zerillo projects them for a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. He projects the Giants to post a 98 wRC+ against the side.
The Snakes rank fourth among MLB teams in defensive runs saved this year. They boast speed across the diamond, so I expect elite results for the remainder of the year.
Conversely, the Giants rank 22nd in defensive runs saved, and they’ve shown a lack of speed and agility in the field over the past few seasons.
So, I’m looking to buy the Snakes as moderately heavy underdogs behind Nelson’s upside and the position player advantages. Considering the projections and their on-the-field advantages, they shouldn’t catch more than +140 on the moneyline.
Diamondbacks vs. Giants pick
Diamondbacks ML (+145, BetMGM)