While there wasn’t a collapse on Sunday like there was at The Players Championship the week before, it was still a frustrating week.
After Friday’s round at the Valspar Championship last week, the two biggest live favorites were Justin Thomas and Lucas Glover, who were both on my betting card.
They were paired together on Saturday and it was an absolute mess. They combined to shoot 8-over par and lost nearly 10 strokes putting between the two of them.
We’ll look to bounce back at this week’s Texas Children’s Houston Open.
This will be the fourth time on the PGA Tour that the Memorial Park Golf Course has hosted an event, but only the first time it will serve as a host in the spring, as the previous three editions were all played in the fall.
There shouldn’t be a big change in how the course plays, but the greens have poa trivialis overseed this time of year rather than pure bermudagrass.
Measuring 7,430 yards, the course is a unique par-70 because it features three par-5s and three par-3s; most par-70 courses have two 5s and two 3s.
Most of the courses that we see on the PGA Tour are private clubs, but this is a municipal golf course, with nearly 60,000 rounds of golf played there annually.
There are only 21 bunkers on the property, which is extremely low compared to most venues. The lack of bunkering makes the course easier for amateurs and more difficult for professionals, who would much prefer to be in the bunker than the rough around the green.
Instead of bunkers, the greens feature closely mowed run-off areas that will create a lot of tight-lie chip shots.
The fairways are standard in width yet are tough to hit on average. The greens are quite large but also difficult to hit on average.
With the length of the course, the thickness of the rough and the trickiness around the green, this course has played as one of the toughest non-majors on the PGA Tour.
As we often see on difficult courses, a strong tee-to-green game is required to contend. That certainly fits the mold of past winners here, including Tony Finau, Jason Kokrak and Carlos Ortiz.
As you will see with my betting card, I’m willing to take a chance on poor putters this week.
Houston Open outright picks
Will Zalatoris +2000
The big story of the outright market this week is that Scottie Scheffler is +275. He’s the best golfer in the world, he’s the class of the field, and he’s coming off back-to-back wins.
It’s scary fading Scheffler, but I can’t bring myself to bet on a golfer to win a full-field event at those odds.
Instead, I’m starting my betting card with another golfer, Zalatoris, who lives in Texas.
Zalatoris missed the cut at The Players but finished fourth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and second at the Genesis Invitational in his previous two starts.
Thanks to his strong tee-to-green game and course management, he’s one of the best in the field on difficult golf venues, and he has quietly gained at least 1.3 strokes putting in three of his last four starts.
Stephan Jaeger +5000
Jaeger has found himself in contention a number of times over the last 18 months, but he can never seem to cross the finish line on Sunday.
However, I’m more concerned about getting my golfers into the mix than them crossing the finish line.
Jaeger is one of the best ball-strikers in the field and is elite around the green.
It all comes down to the putter, but again, I’m more willing to bet on bad putters on difficult golf courses.
In his two appearances at this event, he has finished T9 (2022) and T35 (2021).
Doug Ghim +7000
Ghim was a letdown on the weekend at the Valspar Championship, but at least he made the cut.
Before last week, he had reeled together five straight top-20 finishes, and during that stretch, he gained more than 20 strokes ball-striking.
Over the last 24 rounds, he’s eighth in this field in ball-striking and sixth in strokes gained tee to green.
The putter is always a wild card with Ghim, but it’s worth noting that he has gained at least 1.1 strokes with the flatstick in four of his last six starts.
His game has been solid all year and +7000 odds to win are awfully enticing in this weak field.
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Joel Dahmen +9000
I had to round out my betting card with another longshot who’s an excellent ball-striker. Over his last two starts, Dahmen has gained 10.0 strokes and 9.2 strokes ball-striking.
For reference, only Scheffler has better ball-striking numbers over the last eight rounds.
If we ignore Dahmen’s recent short-game blunders, how do we not like him at +9000?
He’s won on the PGA Tour before and seems to love this course, with back-to-back top-10 finishes.
He’s worth a sprinkle at these odds.