Ukraine War Map Shows Russia’s Advances Near Marinka

Russian forces in eastern Ukraine have advanced to the west and southwest of Donetsk City, new maps show, as Kyiv battles to stop the Kremlin’s push into its territory.

Moscow’s troops have advanced around the south of the battered village of Marinka in recent days, according to analysis from U.S. think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Marinka sits to the southwest of the regional capital, and Ukraine said in late December that its troops had retreated to the northern flank of the town.

Russia’s forces “marginally advanced” on the southern edge of the village of Novomykhailivka, the think tank said in its latest assessment. A Russian military blogger — influential in Russian defense and military circles — claimed that Moscow’s troops are trying to reach the village of Heorhiivka, immediately west of Marinka, to capture the town of Kurakhove, the ISW said.

Shortly after Russia claimed control of most of Marinka in late December, Serhiy Hrabsky, a military analyst and former Ukrainian army colonel, told Newsweek that Ukraine’s grasp around Novomykhailivka “will significantly deteriorate” in light of Russian advances.

Moscow could then work its way to the town of Kurakhove and ultimately down to Velyka Novosilka, close to the Donetsk border with the Dnipropetrovsk region. Apart from the obvious territorial gains for Russia, reaching the western Donetsk border would mark a significant propaganda victory for Moscow, Hrabsky said.

Russia will also want to advance toward the town of Vuhledar, which was the site of bitter battles throughout 2022, he said.

Marinka has spent nearly a decade on the front line, and has been devastated by years of fighting.

“Marinka was practically wiped off the ground by the enemy,” Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of Ukraine’s Tavria grouping of forces covering Marinka, told the BBC on December 23.

Ukrainian forces repelled three Russia attacks around Marinka and Novomykhailivka on Sunday, the Ukrainian military said early on Monday. Russia’s defense ministry said on Sunday that it had attacked Ukrainian positions around Novomykhailivka, Vuhledar and Staromaiorske, close to the Zaporizhzhia border.

Some Western analysis has questioned whether Russia has the resources to push on from Marinka further west. The capture of Marinka was a “limited Russian tactical gain” and Russia showed no indication it had bolstered its ability to execute quick mechanized forward movement, the ISW said in late December.

“Desperate offensive actions significantly exhausted the Russian attacking potential,” Hrabsky added.

Marinka doesn’t have the same tactical value as Avdiivka, on the outskirts of Donetsk City. Russian forces have spent the winter months attacking Avdiivka, paying for gains in encircling the town with heavy casualties and high equipment losses.

Ukraine held back six Russian attacks around Avdiivka and Novobakhmutivka, to the northwest of Avdiivka, Kyiv said on Monday. Another 15 Russian attacks were reported around Pervomaiske and Nevelske, to the southwest of Avdiivka.

Russia doesn’t typically mention Avdiivka in its daily updates, but said it had targeted Ukrainian forces at several points along the Donetsk frontline.