Hurricane Lidia is expected to make landfall along the Pacific Coast of Mexico on Tuesday night as a major hurricane, potentially threatening a stretch of the west-central shoreline home to Puerto Vallarta, a resort town and popular tourist destination in the Mexican state of Jalisco. Its expected arrival comes on the heels of Tropical Storm Max, which hit the southern coast of Mexico on Monday, several hundred miles from Jalisco, before tapering off.
Forecasts developed in the hours leading up to Lidia’s expected arrival placed the storm system about 155 miles southwest of Puerto Vallarta at 12 p.m. Central Time, roughly 40 miles closer to shore than it had been three hours earlier, according to the National Hurricane Center. At noon, meteorologists said Lidia was packing maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour, with higher gusts, classifying it as a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, which rates potential property damage.
Lidia had grown in strength since the hurricane center’s previous update at 9 a.m. CT, when it carried maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and at the time was categorized as a Category 2 hurricane. A storm falls within Category 2 when its maximum sustained winds are stronger than 96 mph but do not exceed 110 mph, and shifts to Category 3 when wind speeds are between 111 mph and 129 mph. Any hurricane classified as a Category 3 storm or above — the system ranks storms through Category 5 — is considered a major hurricane.
But Lidia was forecast to potentially strengthen even further as it approached Mexico’s west-central shoreline, threatening to bring with it dangerous hurricane-force winds, rain and flooding that could begin as early as Tuesday afternoon, the hurricane center said in an advisory. When the storm makes landfall in the evening or overnight it will likely be at or near major hurricane strength, the advisory said.
Meteorologists forecast Lidia will begin to rapidly weaken as it moves inland, but the hurricane is also expected to bring as much as 12 inches of rain to parts of the Mexican states of Nayarit, Sinaloa and coastal Jalisco, likely causing flash flooding and urban flooding as well as possible mudslides in sections of the coast with higher terrain.
“Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area later this afternoon. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in its 12 p.m. advisory. “Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning this afternoon.”
National Hurricane Center / NOAA
The hurricane center warned that “a dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall,” and noted that the surge will accompany “large and dangerous waves” near the coast. Life-threatening surf and rip currents linked to Lidia are also expected along the western coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula.
The Mexican government had already expanded its hurricane warning by 9 a.m. CT to include a wider section of the Pacific Coast, extending some 350 miles to Manzanillo, in the state of Colima, and El Roblito, in Nayarit, which bookend the seaside city of Puerto Vallarta. Tropical storm warnings were also in effect for parts of Baja California Sur, including Punta San Telmo extended south from Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo.
A hurricane warning was also in effect for the Islas Marías, an archipelago about 60 miles off of Nayarit and 200 miles southeast of the tip of Baja California. Forecasts indicated Lidia would approach the island chain as it continued to track toward land Tuesday, although an exact location for the hurricane’s projected landfall was not given. Conditions were “expected to worsen throughout the day” around the archipelago and surrounding region of Mexico’s west-central coast throughout the day, meteorologists said.
As Lidia accelerated on its path toward land early Tuesday, the hurricane center anticipated that the storm would continue to strengthen because its development over the Pacific coincides with “very warm” sea surface temperatures as well as an upper-level wind pattern that can play a role in the dynamics of a hurricane.
Although parts of Lidia’s potential landfall area are not densely populated, the hurricane’s track has raised concerns about Puerto Vallarta, a city known for its beaches that has gained international popularity as a hub for tourism and a frequented spring break vacation spot for Americans. The U.S. State Department urged travelers to “reconsider” visiting Puerto Vallarta earlier this year, saying “violent crime and gang activity are common.” Not long after, the Treasury Department announced sanctions against members or associates of the Jalisco drug cartel, who allegedly targeted elderly Americans in a timeshare fraud scam that focused on Puerto Vallarta.