NEW YORK — Another day, another stunning upset at the US Open.
Just 24 hours after Carlos Alcaraz was handed his earliest exit at the tournament, defending champion and No. 2 seed Novak Djokovic lost to No. 28 seed Alexei Popyrin, 6-4, 6-4, 2-6, 6-4, in the third round on the same court.
Playing in the prime-time night match Friday at Arthur Ashe Stadium, few thought the 25-year-old Australian had a chance against Djokovic, who was on a quest to make history with a record-breaking 25th major title, and had just won Olympic gold in Paris. They had met twice in majors this season — at the Australian Open and Wimbledon — and Popyrin had been unable to win in either match.
But Friday was different.
Perhaps still riding the momentum from winning his first Masters 1000-level title at the Canadian Open earlier this month, and buoyed by his 50 winners on the night and Djokovic’s poor serving, Popyrin played the best match of his career.
“It’s unbelievable because I’ve been in the third round about 15 times and I haven’t been able to get to the fourth,” Popyrin said on the court after the match. “To be able to do it against the greatest of all time is unbelievable. It’s a great feeling and the hard work paid off.”
Djokovic, who had knee surgery in June, later called his performance “awful” and said it was “some of the worst tennis” he had ever played. The 37-year-old admitted he felt drained after an intense summer schedule, which saw multiple surface changes.
“I spent a lot of energy winning the gold, and I did arrive to New York just not feeling fresh mentally and physically,” Djokovic said. “But because it’s the US Open, you know, I gave it a shot and I tried my best. I mean, I didn’t have any physical issues. I just felt out of gas, you know, and you could see that with the way I played.”
Djokovic officially concluded his Slam season without a title for the first time since 2017. It’s the first season a member of the Big Three (Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer) didn’t win a major trophy since 2002.
And the tournament is now the only Slam to not have the men’s No. 2 or 3 seed in the round of 16 in more than 22 years.
Needless to say, it has been a surprising first week in Queens and, with two of the favorites now eliminated, the men’s title is very much up for grabs. So, who has the strongest chance to hoist the trophy as we head into Day 6? Given the way this tournament has started, predictions could be very tricky, but we’ll still try. (And yes, we recognize the players in the top half of the draw have yet to play their third-round matches.)
Up next: Third round vs. Christopher O’Connell (Saturday)
The world No. 1 was considered a pre-tournament favorite alongside Alcaraz and Djokovic, but the announcement of his two positive tests for a banned substance in March resulted in heavy scrutiny and it was unclear how he would fare considering the circumstances. Sinner, 23, dropped the first set of his opening-round match against Mackenzie McDonald but has otherwise cruised into the third round and his play has been largely unaffected by the off-court chatter.
Sinner has never advanced past the quarterfinals in New York but is the current Australian Open champion and took home the title in Cincinnati earlier this month in his final lead-in event. He’s one of the best currently on the hard court and capable of beating anyone left in the draw.
Up next: Third round vs. No. 31 Flavio Cobolli (Saturday)
The only remaining US Open champion left in the draw, the 2021 winner arrived to the tournament slightly under the radar after lackluster results at both Montreal and Cincinnati and having not won a title all season. However, the fan favorite has dropped just one set en route to the third round and should get past Cobolli in their first career meeting. Nuno Borges or Jakub Mensik would await in the round of 16.
Medvedev, 28, probably would face Sinner in the quarterfinals and it’s hard to think anyone has a better chance to defeat the World No. 1 than Medvedev. A three-time US Open finalist, he certainly has experience on his side and flourishes under the lights on Ashe in front of a rowdy crowd.
The winner of that presumed match would immediately become the favorite.
Up next: Fourth round vs. No. 28 Alexei Popyrin (Sunday)
As you’ve probably heard countless times, no American man has won a major title since the US Open in 2003. But did you see what Tiafoe did against Ben Shelton, his fellow countryman, on Friday in the third round? Needing five sets and over four hours, Tiafoe dug deep and found an answer for Shelton’s powerful serve. By the match’s end, the 26-year-old had become the first American man since Andre Agassi (2001-2005) to reach the round of 16 at the tournament in five consecutive seasons.
An electrifying showman who thrives in front of the biggest crowds and on the biggest stages, Tiafoe is as beloved a player in New York as there is and will have the fans firmly behind him in every match he plays. He has made it clear the US Open is his top priority — even skipping the Olympics this summer to best prepare for the surface. He made the final in Cincinnati, and reached the US Open semifinals in 2022. With Djokovic now out of the way, Tiafoe’s path to the quarters — and beyond — became significantly easier and there’s perhaps no one who wants this more. When asked if an American man could end the drought at the tournament, he called it a “kind of a ‘Why not?’ thing.” So why not Tiafoe?
Up next: Fourth round vs. No. 8 Casper Ruud (Sunday)
Let’s start with the obvious: Ruud, a 2022 US Open finalist, will not be an easy opponent and that match could certainly go either way. But, like Tiafoe, Fritz will have the support of the home crowd and the extra motivation of wanting to end the winless major streak — something he had previously said fueled him.
And not to mention, he has had an incredible season and strong showing during the first week. He has reached the round of 16 at every major this year — becoming the first American since Agassi to do so in a single season — and won two titles in 2024, in addition to claiming Olympic bronze in doubles. Fritz, 26, hasn’t lost a set in three matches and had a particularly impressive second-round win over former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini. He has reached four major quarterfinals in his career, including at the 2023 US Open, but has never advanced beyond the round. To quote Tiafoe, who Fritz could potentially play in the semis, “Why not?”
Up next: Fourth round vs. No. 9 Grigor Dimitrov (Sunday)
There were a number of men up for consideration for this last spot, including Popyrin, Ruud, Dimitrov, and American Tommy Paul, but ultimately Rublev was the choice. After a somewhat baffling season, the 26-year-old finally seems back on track and has been playing some high-quality tennis on the surface this summer. He advanced to the final at Montreal and the quarterfinals at Cincinnati, and has found ways to win in New York despite some struggles.
Though he won his opener and third-round matches in straight sets, he fell into a two-set deficit in the second round against Arthur Rinderknech. But Rublev fought back and clawed his way to victory. It was just the second win of his career from two-sets-to-love down, and first in nearly four years. A 10-time major quarterfinalist, including four times at the US Open, Rublev has never managed to escape the final eight.
If he can get past a resurgent Dimitrov on Sunday, the winner of Tiafoe-Popyrin awaits. It seems likely he will at some point find a way to advance to the semifinals (or beyond) and perhaps he might recognize this as his best chance yet and capitalize on the opportunity.