Even with recent rainfall, the Chicago area is still experiencing drought conditions, and if things continue on this path, it’s possible that it could impact the changing of colors on the area’s leaves.
According to the National Weather Service, Chicago reported just 1.32 inches of rain in the month of September, nearly two inches less than what it normally receives. The city also tied its mark for the second-warmest September on record, with an average temperature of 70.6 degrees.
The dry conditions were present in most of the area, with most of the suburbs away from Lake Michigan seeing their rainfall totals coming up even shorter of their historic averages, according to NWS data.
As a result, nearly all of the Chicago area is at a “moderate drought” level as of late September, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, and things don’t appear to be getting any better based on projections for the remainder of October.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, forecasters are “leaning toward” the Chicago area seeing below-average precipitation levels for the month of October, which could further exacerbate drought conditions in the region.
Finally, temperature forecasts are leaning toward above-average readings for the month of October, according to the CPC.
While farmers will surely welcome the dry conditions, as they won’t have to dry out their crops before taking them to market, the conditions could have significant impacts on how quickly, and how colorfully, leaves change in the region this fall.
According to Minnesota professor Jessica Savage, leaves “tend to turn colors earlier and drop more quickly” in drier years, leading to “less spectacular and shorter periods of fall foliage viewing.”
Savage also warned that multiple consecutive years of autumn droughts can cause stress on trees, leading to long-term ramifications for the tree’s ability to produce vibrant, colorful leaves.
According to National Weather Service data, Chicago has had two consecutive months of drier-than-normal conditions, though in June the city observed 5.89 inches of rain, far above the average of 3.59 inches. Chicago was also slightly above average in rainfall in April and May, according to the National Weather Service.
According to American Forests, the Chicago area is already seeing patchy changes to its leaves as of Sept. 30, while parts of Wisconsin are already seeing partial-changeover.
By mid-October, it is expected that the Chicago area will be nearing its peak fall colors, while parts of Wisconsin will be starting move past their peak colors.
Oct. 21 is the forecasted date by which most of the Chicago area will be at peak colors, though some southern suburbs could have to wait until the following week, according to the website.