Campaign Context: Why this VP debate could actually matter

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As campaign season nears, politicians are turning up the volume on campaign rhetoric. To cut through the noise, we’re launching Campaign Context, a series providing clarity on the messages you’re hearing from candidates on the campaign trail. We’re digging past the politics and into the facts to provide you with the transparent, spin-free information you need to make informed decisions this election season.

AUSTIN (KXAN) — Tuesday night’s vice-presidential debate between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) could prove to be consequential in ways past VP debates have not been.

Historically, these debates haven’t done much to move the needle in terms of swaying voters, but — as we’ve said so often — this election cycle is different.

The polls show razor thin margins between Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump in key swing states. Add to that, Harris’ late addition to the top of the Democratic ticket, and an unlikely second debate between Harris and Trump, and the pressure was on both Vance and Walz to keep from making any race-altering flubs on the debate stage.

Our partners at The Hill spoke with Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio ahead of the vice presidential showdown.

“All the needle needs to be moved is 0.1% in either direction, and that could be the difference in four or five states,” he said.

New September polling from The Associated Press and NORC, the non-partisan National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, found Vance had a little more work to do headed into the debate with Walz viewed ‘more positively’ by voters.

Walz had a 42% favorable opinion among all registered voters compared to Vance’s 27%.

Broken down by party affiliation, 72% of Democrats had a favorable opinion of their VP nominee versus 57% of Republicans.

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