The global population hit 8 billion in November 2022 and continues to rise. However, the increase has not been even across the globe.
In the U.S., birth rates have reached an all-time low, dropping 3 percent between 2022 and 2024.
According to data published by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) as part of the U.S. government’s World Factbook, the U.S. places 131st on a list of 236 countries and territories around the world when it comes to population growth, expanding by 0.67 percent every year. Meanwhile, the fastest-growing country on the list is South Sudan, expanding at a rate of 4.65 percent every year.
The map shows which countries are growing faster than the U.S. The data includes birth rates and net migration for each country.
“Most countries with high rates of population growth…share a combination of young population structure [that also means many women are in their reproductive ages] and high fertility rates [i.e., high number of children per woman],” Tomas Sobotka, a senior researcher at the Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital and deputy director of the Vienna Institute of Demography, previously told Newsweek.
“Although fertility rates have been declining everywhere, countries with young population structure will continue experiencing high population growth in many decades to come.”
So, why has the U.S. seen a decline in population growth?
“International migration started falling in 2017 and the pandemic really shifted migration trends,” Beth Jarosz, senior program director at the Population Reference Bureau, told Newsweek. “Borders were effectively closed, and international migration fell to the lowest level that I can recall. Now migration is ticking up again, but as of 2023 it still hadn’t rebounded to 2016 levels.
“Life expectancy, which was already plateauing before the pandemic, fell sharply in 2020 and 2021. It’s also recovering, but we’re still not back to pre-pandemic levels. Birth rates also continue to fall, and the total fertility rate—which we’ve been tracking for nearly 100 years—is at a record low of 1.6 children per woman.”
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In other words, all drivers of population growth in the U.S. are low right now. But should we be concerned?
“Part of the reason U.S. fertility rates are low is that there’s been a decline in teen pregnancy, which most would say is not something to be concerned about,” Jarosz said. “Overall, the U.S. is in line with the global trend toward lower fertility rates characteristic of this particular time in history.”
There are, however, two aspects to this that could be a cause for concern.
“One is if people are finding it difficult to have the number of children they desire—something we are attuned to in countries around the world with a variety of fertility rates,” Jarosz said. “The other is if those in influential positions in the United States continue to focus on changing low fertility rates instead of on adapting to a U.S. with a slower growing and aging population.”
When it comes to demography, it’s easy to see people as a statistic, and this is where fears arise.
“No matter the fertility rate or context, it is important to focus on empowering people to have the number of children they desire and to center rights,” Jarosz said.
“Often, what we perceive as a ‘population problem’ is really a failure of other areas. Pressures on the U.S. Social Security system, for example, while in sharp relief because of demographic change, will not be ‘solved’ by changing those demographics. We’ll have to use other levers of policy change.”
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