Heading into what is expected to be another tight presidential race, Republicans are laying the groundwork for an updated version of the false “voter fraud” claims made four years ago after then-President Trump lost the election.
This time their target is so-called noncitizen voting, a practice dismissed by experts on both sides of the aisle as rare and inconsequential. But it’s one Republicans hope will resonate with voters frustrated by illegal immigration.
By law, only U.S. citizens are eligible to vote for president and other top federal offices.
But claiming — without evidence — that the practice could undermine U.S. elections, GOP officials in states including Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma have initiated reviews of voter rolls, issued executive orders and placed constitutional amendments on ballots that aim to curb the potential for noncitizen voting.
This week House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) tried to tie a bill to extend government spending and avert a federal shutdown to a controversial GOP proposal — the SAVE Act — that would require states to obtain proof of U.S. citizenship when people register to vote.
Johnson pulled the idea Wednesday due to lack of support from even his own members. But the issue isn’t likely going away.
Last month, the Supreme Court’s conservative majority ruled that Arizona may require proof of citizenship when registering new voters for future elections. It was an emergency order unlikely to impact this year’s election, but it broke new ground by affirming that states may require proof of citizenship when they register all new voters through their state system.
Trump nodded to the issue at Wednesday night’s presidential debate, suggesting the Biden administration has brought in migrants to drum up votes for the Democratic Party.
In California, Republicans don’t have enough power to shape state policy. But California House Republicans are joining with the majority to draw attention to the issue at the federal level.
In a House Judiciary subcommittee hearing Tuesday, Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove), noted that Vice President Kamala Harris leads Trump by 1.1%, according to the most recent Real Clear Polling average. With such a tight race, he said he worries that illegal votes could decide the presidential election.
“And even if this was not happening, the mere perception of it is enough to destroy public confidence that the vote will accurately reflect the will of the American people,” he said.
“In California, you can’t prosecute somebody for voting illegally unless you can prove they actually knew it was illegal,” McClintock continued. “All a defendant would need to say is ‘Hey, they handed me a registration form, they sent me a ballot. How was I to know?’ And that’s a valid point. How many people are in legal jeopardy and don’t even know it?”
Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Bonsall) took to X to share his critique that “Democrats preach voter integrity and then oppose things, like the SAVE Act, that would help accomplish it.”
Congress has until Sept. 30 to approve a stopgap funding bill and avoid a government shutdown.
On Wednesday, Johnson said he pulled the spending bill — with the SAVE Act attached — from a scheduled vote to “work through the weekend” to build consensus for it. Several Republican lawmakers have said they oppose the measure.
Democrats slammed the move, saying the spending bill should not include partisan policies and that the SAVE Act would only complicate voter registration.
“I actually did voter protection work during the 2012 race in Tampa, Fla., and what we saw there were senior citizens who were no longer getting driver’s licenses, or they’d expired,” said Rep. Nanette Diaz Barragán (D-San Pedro), chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. “So guess what? They couldn’t vote. When you have restrictions like this, it does disenfranchise certain people. What they’re trying to get at here is really more about the political season and creating doubt about who’s voting.”
Under a 1996 law, noncitizens who vote in elections for president or members of Congress face fines, imprisonment and possible deportation. Federal law also requires states to regularly remove anyone who is ineligible from voter rolls.
Republicans in some states have pointed to voter registration reviews that turned up potential noncitizens.
In Texas, for example, Gov. Greg Abbott said more than 6,500 potential noncitizens were removed from the state’s voter rolls of nearly 18 million since 2021. That includes 1,930 people with “a voter history” who were referred for investigation by the attorney general’s office.
But data indicate that voting by noncitizens is rare. A study of the 2016 election by the Brennan Center for Justice found that officials referred about 30 cases of suspected noncitizen voting for investigation or prosecution.
A review by the American Immigration Council of the right-wing Heritage Foundation‘s database turned up 68 cases of noncitizen voting since the 1980s.
David Becker, founder of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research, said the SAVE Act, which only applies to voter registrations after it goes into effect, would have no impact on November’s election.
“Registration deadlines start kicking Oct. 6, so virtually no voters who are registered for 2024 would be affected by the SAVE Act,” he said. “Why are you raising claims about noncitizens being on the lists where House Republicans have controlled Congress since January 2023, when Donald Trump was the president of the United States for four years and could have done something about this?”
The answer, he said, is because the issue is manufactured.
“This isn’t about fixing a perceived problem — even if those problems existed — because there’s no time to do it,” he said. “It’s about fueling perceived claims of an election being stolen in anticipation of what they may believe is going to be a defeat for their preferred candidate.”
In California, the racist myth of immigrant voter fraud goes back at least to 1988, when Republicans in a battle over a state legislative seat hired security guards to police Latino neighborhoods, holding up large placards that said “Non-citizens Can’t Vote!”
In 1998, nearly 750 immigrants were removed from the Orange County voter rolls after being improperly registered to vote before they were sworn in as U.S. citizens. The incident triggered an investigation by a House committee and created for the first time in California a procedure to remove noncitizens from voter rolls.
Riverside County prosecutors found one undocumented immigrant voting for more than a decade in 2019, but investigators said there was no evidence to support widespread fraud.
In Santa Ana, a November ballot measure would grant noncitizens limited voting power in local elections by 2028, but has drawn intense opposition from those who think only citizens should be allowed to vote.
“It’s not like these localities are going rogue,” said Mindy Romero, founder of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at USC, noting that it’s not unconstitutional for noncitizens to vote in local elections. “That’s a policy conversation that will continue as more communities might decide to take on this issue.”
Romero said the few cities that have opened up certain local elections to noncitizen voters still struggle with turnout because, like many other groups, they too need to be mobilized.
She said the concern about voter fraud is fueled by misinformation, fear and demonization of immigrants. Saying immigrants are coming to the U.S. with the intention to influence politics also makes people distrustful of the entire political structure, she said. “It’s just another thing to be fearful of: immigrants trying to take my vote away from me,” she said.