Dozens of occupations that collectively employ hundreds of thousands of Americans in decent-paying jobs are likely to shrink over the next decade, according to recent government data.
These jobs face a range of challenges, from the impact of artificial intelligence to changing consumer habits that will result in fewer workers needed to fill jobs. All together, these generally middle-class professions — which pay from $40,000 on the low end to more than $100,000 a year — are forecast to shed more than 600,000 jobs by 2033, figures from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics show.
The projections highlight the shifting nature of the labor market, which overall is projected to add 6.7 million new jobs through 2033, the BLS said in an August 29 report. But even as employment continues to grow in the U.S., winners and losers are set to emerge, with experts pointing to growth in careers that will require postsecondary training or education, such as professional certificates or college degrees.
“There are many types of jobs that will disappear”
Most shrinking middle-class jobs only require a high school degree to enter the field, with experts noting that better-paying careers that are growing now generally require higher levels of education.
“It’s the evolution of the world of work,” noted Nicole Smith, chief economist at Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce. “There is a transitioning happening in the labor market, with many new jobs requiring postsecondary credentials.”
She added, “There are many types of jobs that will disappear.” But workers that remain in these occupations will likely have the skills to adapt to new technology, such as artificial intelligence or other forms of automation, she added.
To be sure, such shifts are nothing new. The American labor market is perpetually changing, with the U.S. largely transitioning from an agricultural and manufacturing economy in the 19th and early 20th centuries into today’s service-based economy. But periods of change can be painful for workers, who are often caught unprepared or unable to move into new professions.
Among the top losers are likely to be people working in entry-level office jobs, such as clerks who answer telephones, schedule appointments or file paperwork, according to the Labor Department. This occupation is forecast to shed 6% of its employees by 2033 — a loss of nearly 150,000 jobs — representing a continuation of job losses that began years ago due to changes in technology and automation.
“Many clerks will struggle to transition to new jobs, especially if they lack the necessary skills for higher-paying or more technical roles that are in higher demand,” ZipRecruiter chief economist Julia Pollak told CBS MoneyWatch.
Demand is also projected to dwindle for computer programmers — once viewed as a ticket to a good-paying career — with the BLS forecasting the occupation will shed 10% of its workers by 2033. The main reason: Automation is making coders more efficient, which means employers will require fewer programmers over time.
Even so, many STEM-related jobs are also forecast to surge, with the BLS projecting that the economy will add more than 300,000 new software developers in the next decade.
Education required
About 15.2 million new middle-class jobs will be created through 2031, according to a July report from Georgetown’s Center on Education and the Workforce, which defines these roles as paying at least $43,000 annually.
But the lion’s share of those new jobs will be held by workers with postsecondary education, including a bachelor’s degree, associates degree or a training certificate, the researchers noted. Some good jobs will be still available to people with only high school diplomas, but these will be focused in blue-collar jobs such as transportation and construction, Georgetown found.
At the same time, many Americans are questioning the value of a college degree, with more people saying they don’t feel the cost is worth it. Only about 1 in 4 Americans say a bachelor’s degree is necessary to secure a good-paying job, according to a March survey from the Pew Research Center.
Still, Georgetown’s analysis finds it will likely get harder to secure a good job without some sort of additional educational attainment beyond high school.
“There is pushback against everyone having a bachelor’s degree,” Smith noted. But, she added, “The trouble comes when we say no degree is required at all.”
Where middle-class jobs are growing
While dozens of fields offering decent pay are likely to shed workers over the next decade, there are plenty of occupations where demand for skilled workers is expected to surge. Many of them will require postsecondary credentials, from bachelor’s degrees to apprenticeships.
For instance, the CHIPS and Science Act is resulting in billions invested in new semiconductor plants in the U.S. Those facilities are expected to hire tens of thousands of workers, but many of these jobs will require specialized training, unlike many manufacturing jobs from earlier eras.
“They require you to sit down in a community college for six months to a year to be able to man those machines,” Smith said. “You don’t walk out of high school with those skills.”