The Cubs enter September in a different position than last year. Last year, on Sept. 2, the Cubs had a 59.5% chance of clinching a wild-card spot and a 69.9% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. The Cubs then went 12-16 in September and choked away a chance at the playoffs. Instead of peaking, the club was descending.
This year, the Cubs are entering September healthy and playing their best ball of the season, coming off an 18-8 August with a plus-46 run differential. They’re playing a more complete brand of baseball.
“We’ve talked about offense all day, [but] I would talk about the defense a lot on this road trip,” manager Craig Counsell said. I would talk about the baserunning a lot on this road trip. We played well in a lot of areas, and that’s been a part of winning as well.”
Counsell brought up third baseman Isaac Paredes’ diving stop in the second inning of Sunday’s 14-1 win was a game-changing play because the bases were loaded with no outs.
When the Cubs left for their nine-game road trip, they had a 2.9% chance of making the playoffs. Entering Monday’s games, their odds had risen to 6.7% after an 8-1 road trip that featured back-to-back sweeps for the first time since 2022.
“A baseball season is a marathon and it has to breathe, you don’t always get to pick,” Counsell said. “We’ve hit a good stretch right now. We’ve got our work cut out for us, but [we’re] certainly playing at a pretty high level right now in all phases.”
Pearson’s adjustments
The problem throughout right-hander Nate Pearson’s career hasn’t been talent. The former 2017 first-round pick still has plus-velocity. The problem was that his fastball — in the 95th percentile for velocity — was getting hit consistently. Opponents are slashing .300/.386/.509 against his fastball.
But what was even more troubling was that Pearson was getting obliterated by left-handed hitters. Pearson had a 5.94 ERA against lefties with Toronto versus his 1.13 ERA with the Cubs. Granted, it’s a small sample size (15 1/3 innings), but the Cubs have shown over the years that they can get the most out of relievers.
The Cubs have changed Pearson’s setup on the rubber, a change that pitching coach Tommy Hottovy wanted to implement on Pearson’s second day with the organization. Pearson moved his setup over on the rubber in August, where he had a 1.93 ERA in August over 14 innings.
“It’s helped my stuff out mechanically and [with] overall pitch shapes,” Pearson told the Sun-Times. “Everything’s going towards home plate, and everything’s in the zone.”
Before, Pearson was on the third-base side, which he said allowed lefties to see his pitches more easily.
“I wasn’t really hiding the ball,” Pearson said. “I was lacking a little bit of deception and getting my fastball hit pretty hard. I’ve seen a little bit of a change and mix-up since moving over.”
The team could use Pearson’s velocity out of the bullpen down the stretch.
Hendricks in the bullpen
Veteran Kyle Hendricks moved to the bullpen for Monday’s game. Counsell said the team will go from there, not saying it’s a permanent switch.