WASHINGTON (NEXSTAR) – While it is almost unheard of for an independent or third-party candidate to win a presidential election, history shows they can have an impact on the outcome, especially in close races.
Before Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his presidential campaign and announced he would support former President Donald Trump, there were questions over whether Kennedy’s presidential bid would hurt or help Trump. Some Republicans argue that Kennedy’s decision to suspend his campaign could help Trump pull in more votes. While others say it won’t make much of a difference for Trump.
There are several other third-party and independent candidates running in the 2024 election, including Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Independent Cornell West and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver.
While George Washington was the first and last independent to win the presidency in 1789, third-party and independent candidates have made an impact in presidential elections.
2016 election
The most recent election in which third-party candidates made a notable impact was in 2016. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton had relatively low approval numbers. According to the Pew Research Center, this paved the way for former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson to receive just over 3% of the popular vote.
Green Party nominee Jill Stein also gained some support, earning just over 1% of the vote.
Political analysts have suggested that third-party candidates helped Trump in the 2016 election. Some analysts speculate that if votes for Stein had gone to Clinton in a few of the close states, Clinton could have won the Electoral College.
However, analysts have argued this is not the case, citing exit polls that show most of Stein’s voters would not have voted at all rather than voting for Clinton.
2000 election
In the tightly contested 2000 election, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader received 2.7% of the vote, which made a difference in such states as Florida and New Hampshire. Some believe Nader tapped enough votes from Democratic nominee Al Gore to give Republican George W. Bush an edge.
Political analysts point to Florida, where the race was so close it led to a statewide recount. Ultimately, Bush won by less than 600 votes. According to History.com, if a small percentage of the 100,000 people who voted for Nader in the Sunshine State had instead gone to Gore, then Gore could have won the election.
Nader also picked up 22,000 votes in New Hampshire, which Bush also won by a small margin. If New Hampshire had gone to Gore, that would’ve sealed his win as president.
1992 election
Another close election involving an independent candidate was in 1992 between George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton. Texas billionaire Ross Perot gained popularity and earned nearly 19% of the vote. It was the best showing by an independent candidate in 80 years.
Perot ran again in 1996 but did not garner as much support.
1980 election
In the 1980 race between Democrat Jimmy Carter and Republican Ronald Reagan, third-party candidate and Republican Congressman John Anderson won more than 6% of the national popular vote.
Ultimately, Reagan won the election in a decisive victory with 489 electoral votes to Carter’s 49.