The next presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is scheduled for September 10, and with the election coming in less than 70 days, it has the potential to be a high-stakes moment in the campaign.
The last presidential debate between President Joe Biden and Trump proved to be one of the most consequential in U.S. history, with Biden’s poor performance becoming the catalyst for his declining approval and eventual decision to drop out.
As both campaign teams gear up for another debate in a very tight election, Newsweek asked the generative AI tool, ChatGPT, which candidate it thinks will win the head-to-head.
The prompt we used read: “Who do you think will win the next presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on the 2024 election campaign?
“Give reasons for your answer, and factor in the impact of both of their debate performances in the 2020 election debates, as well as Trump’s debate performance in 2024. When thinking about your answer, also consider who the debate host is, as well as the new mic policy.”
Who Does ChatGPT Think Will Win the Next Presidential Debate?
ChatGPT responded: “Predicting the outcome of a hypothetical future debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the 2024 election campaign involves several considerations, including their past debate performances, potential changes in debate format and rules, and the broader political context.”
When summarizing the two candidates previous performances, the AI said that in her 2020 debate with Mike Pence, Kamala Harris was “noted for her calm demeanor, clear communication, and ability to connect with viewers on issues like healthcare, racial justice, and the pandemic.”
In contrast, when summarizing Trump, ChatGPT said: “Trump’s debate performances in 2020 against Joe Biden were characterized by a combative and aggressive style, frequently interrupting Biden and the moderators.
“His first debate performance was widely criticized for being too chaotic, which led to changes in debate rules, such as muting microphones to prevent interruptions.”
Additionally, the AI suggested that Harris would benefit from a more controlled conversation with strict rules, saying: “The moderator or debate host can significantly impact the debate’s tone and structure. A host who enforces rules strictly and ensures balanced speaking time can mitigate some of the advantages that a more aggressive debater might have.
“If the host favors a more structured debate, it might benefit Kamala Harris, who tends to excel in more controlled environments. Conversely, if the host allows for more free-flowing interaction, it might play into Trump’s strengths.”
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What Are the Candidates’ 2024 Debate Strategies?
ChatGPT said that Kamala Harris “would likely focus on presenting a contrast to Trump’s style, emphasizing her ability to speak directly to policy issues and connect with diverse voter demographics. She might also use Trump’s past controversies and his debate style to frame him as less presidential or disruptive.
“Donald Trump might leverage his base’s strong support and focus on his perceived strengths, such as his ability to dominate the debate stage and drive his points home through repetition and assertiveness. He could also attempt to paint Harris as part of a Washington establishment that his base believes needs to be challenged.”
The AI did not say decisively who would win the debate, describing the question as “inherently subjective” and reliant on media narratives.
“Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have distinct debate styles that appeal to different segments of the electorate. The new mic policy and the choice of debate host could favor a more structured and policy-focused debate, potentially benefiting Harris.
“However, Trump’s ability to command the stage and appeal to his core supporters might still give him an edge with his base. Ultimately, the “winner” might be determined more by who can better connect with undecided voters and who can drive the post-debate narrative in their favor.”
Newsweek contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment.
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