Former President Donald Trump received some good news in a poll released on Sunday, as national aggregate and battleground state surveys have largely favored Vice President Kamala Harris in recent days.
A CBS News/YouGov poll of 3,258 registered voters conducted from August 14 to 16, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points, shows a very tight presidential race between Trump, the GOP’s presidential nominee, and Harris, with Trump leading among people who believe the economy, inflation, and the U.S.-Mexico border are major factors in their voting decision.
It comes nearly a month after Harris has joined the presidential race following President Joe Biden‘s exit from the campaign trail and endorsement of her on July 21. She is set to officially accept the party’s nomination on Thursday, the final night of the Democratic National Convention (DNC).
Newsweek has reached out to the Trump campaign for comment via email on Sunday.
Battleground States
The CBS News/YouGov poll puts Trump and Harris in a complete deadlock in battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—with both candidates maintaining 50 percent of the vote.
Battleground states play a key role in the presidential race, and polls from these states are often considered more telling than national averages, as the popular vote does not guarantee the White House. To become president, a candidate must secure 270 Electoral College votes, and battleground states can swing the election to either candidate.
Updates to CBS News’ statistic model from the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, show the candidates completely tied at 50 percent in Pennsylvania and 49 percent in Wisconsin.
It shows Trump leading by a margin of 1 percentage point in Arizona, 50 percent to Harris’ 49 percent, and 2 percentage points in Georgia and North Carolina, 50 percent to 48 percent.
On the other hand, the model shows Harris leading in Nebraska, 50 percent to Trump’s 47 percent, Nevada with 50 percent to Trump’s 48 percent, and Michigan by 49 percent to 48 percent.
A recent New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters in battleground states shows Harris leading Trump in North Carolina and Arizona, while Trump holds a lead over Harris in Nevada and Georgia. In a survey of 655 likely voters in North Carolina conducted between August 9 and 14, it showed Harris leading Trump 49 to 47 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in this state poll.
In Arizona, among 677 likely voters from August 8 to 15, Harris garnered 50 percent of the vote to Trump’s 45 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points in the Arizona state poll.
In Nevada, Trump edged ahead by 1 percentage point among 661 likely voters from August 9 to 14, leading Harris 48 to 47 percent. The state poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
Trump had the greatest margin in Georgia, with a poll of 661 likely voters found 50 percent would vote for Trump and 46 percent for Harris. The poll, conducted between August 9 and 14 has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
The Trump campaign issued a press memo in response to the Times/Siena College poll, which said its “once again, a perfect example of how wildly inaccurate recalled 2020 vote between President Trump and Joe Biden is being used to create a phony lead for Kamala Harris.”
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Economy and Inflation
The CBS News poll shows that 83 percent of voters consider the economy a “major factor” in their decision-making for the upcoming election, with inflation as the second most popular, at 76 percent. Voters can identify multiple issues as major factors in their voting decision.
When ask if voters thought “the price you pay for food and groceries” will change under Harris or Trump, 48 percent said they will go up under Harris, whereas 37 percent said they would increase under Trump. The poll was largely conducted before Harris outlined her economic plan to ban price-gouging on groceries during a campaign speech Friday.
More than half of the voters believe that Harris’ decision as vice president have impacted the economy in some way, with 24 percent indicating “a lot” and 33 percent “some.”
Among those voting for Trump, 56 percent selected the economy as a major factor, and 61 percent said inflation.
Immigration and the Southern Border
Voters overwhelmingly believe Trump is more likely to reduce border crossings compared to Harris if reelected as president. When asked if their policies would increase border crossings, 48 percent of voters said they expect an increase if Harris wins, while 8 percent said the same for Trump. Conversely, 72 percent believe Trump would decrease border crossings if elected, while 21 percent think Harris would.
Nearly a third of voters believe that Harris had “a lot” to do with the current border situation, while 28 percent believe she had some impact.
Among survey respondents who plan to vote for Trump, 76 percent consider the U.S.-Mexico border a major factor in their decision. In contrast, only 24 percent of those who said they would vote for Harris view it as a major factor.
Polling Averages
Nationally, the CBS News poll showed Harris leading Trump among likely voters, 51 to 48 percent.
Several other national polls have put Harris in the lead, while a survey released Thursday by conservative pollster Rasmussen Reports shows Trump leading Harris by 4 percentage points among likely voters, 49 to 45 percent.
The Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,885 likely voters was conducted on August 8 and between August 11 and 14. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
As of Sunday, several national aggregate polls have also placed Harris in the lead, including FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics, The New York Times, and The Hill, with margins ranging from 1 to 2.6 percentage points.
Battleground state aggregators have also inched towards Harris, with the Times aggregate polls showing Harris only behind in Georgia and tied in Arizona, otherwise leading Trump.
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin aggregate puts Harris ahead in Arizona but slipping behind Trump in Nevada and Georgia.