Monday’s 4.4 magnitude earthquake that jolted the Los Angeles area is part of a broader trend of increased seismic activity in Southern California that is likely to continue, according to the region’s leading seismologist.
“2024 has had more earthquakes than any year we’ve seen since 1988,” Dr. Lucy Jones, a geophysicist and researcher at Caltech, said in an interview on KTLA 5 Morning News Tuesday.
Since 1932, Southern California has averaged 10 to 12 earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 or greater per year. However, Jones noted that the past 20 years have seen an average of just five such quakes annually.
With more than three months left in 2024, the region has already experienced 13 quakes measuring 4.0 or greater.
“So, this is an active year, much like we used to see,” Jones said. “It does seem like we should expect this to continue at a higher rate.”
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, Monday’s 4.4-magnitude quake, which struck at 12:20 p.m., was centered near Los Angeles’ Highland Park neighborhood and occurred along the Puente Hills thrust fault system. It did not cause significant damage but occurred less than a week after a 5.2-magnitude quake near Bakersfield, which also rattled nerves across Southern California.
While many people may believe—or hope—that a series of smaller quakes reduces the chance of a major one hitting the region, Jones says that is simply not how it works.
“The most constant feature of earthquakes is the relative number of large to small,” she said. “For every magnitude seven, you have 10 magnitude sixes, 100 magnitude fives, 1,000 magnitude fours, etc. So, if your rate of [magnitude] fours goes up, your chance of having a bigger one would go up by about the same amount.”
In other words, Jones says more earthquakes mean – more earthquakes.
While no one can predict when the anticipated “big one” will hit, she offered some reassurance that California is better prepared than ever and that people are more prepared.
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“We have built our houses and buildings in California not to collapse, and overwhelmingly that’s true,” she said. “Being prepared doesn’t just mean having supplies; having water is important, but talking with your friends and family about it and having a plan together is probably more important than anything else.”