Why SF Giants’ series against Braves carries major stakes

SAN FRANCISCO — The Giants are hovering over .500. Their thread-the-needle trade deadline is in the past. Their rotation is healthy and solidified.

And the Braves are in town to test them. Atlanta, one of three teams ahead of San Francisco in the wild card race, arrived to start this week for a four-game series at Oracle Park. If the series swings too far in one direction or the other, it could reshape what has become a four-team race for the final wild-card spot.

The Giants and Braves each enter the four-game series with 61 wins, though Atlanta has played three fewer games. At 61-56, the Braves currently claim the last wild-card spot but remain four games back of the Padres and Diamondbacks for the top two wild-card seeds.

San Francisco (61-59) is 1.5 games behind the Braves in the standings. So is St. Louis, at 60-58. The Mets, Atlanta’s National League East rival, are 61-57 — half a game back of Atlanta.

The jumble of teams puts major stakes on the Braves-Giants series in San Francisco. Those four teams have begun to separate themselves, and matchups between them could be thin the group out — even in August.

“It’s a good team,” Giants manager Bob Melvin said before the series opener. “When these teams are right in the mix where we are, just a little bit ahead. So obviously, they’re important games.”

Melvin, the 21-year veteran manager and former longtime player, seemed to catch himself there. In baseball, it’s almost sacrilegious to hype up any single game more than simply one of 162. Especially when it’s not even September yet. But the Giants’ position in the wild-card race — and that of the Braves — sets a certain type of stage.

“I mean, no one game is more important than another,” Melvin said. “But when you’re matching up against a team that’s right there with you, it seems to have a little more impact.”

Both the Giants and Braves have their best arms slated to go. In Monday’s series opener, NL Cy Young favorite Chris Sale and reigning NL Cy Young champion Blake Snell will face off. Sale has put together a resurgent season with the Braves after injury-plagued recent campaigns in Boston, posting a 2.75 ERA and matching the MLB lead for wins (13).

Snell, meanwhile, spun a no-hitter two starts ago and has been the best starter in the sport since returning from the injured list in early July. In six outings over the past month, Snell has a 1.15 ERA and is holding opponents to a .096 batting average.

The series is also scheduled to feature matchups of Charlie Morton and Kyle Harrison; Grant Holmes and Robbie Ray; and Max Fried and Logan Webb.

Jorge Soler and Luke Jackson, traded from San Francisco to Atlanta at the deadline, are making their Oracle Park returns. Soler in particular has been on a tear since the deadline, playing right field every day and posting an OPS over 1.000 for the Braves. The Giants never played him in the outfield, primarily because they had more athletic defenders available, so he’s playing left field at Oracle Park for the first time this season on Monday.

The Giants are playing better than Atlanta recently. Series wins against Washington, Detroit and Cincinnati have helped the Giants to a 7-3 record in August as the Braves have lost seven of 10.

Before the four-game series, the Giants have a 16.3% chance of reaching the postseason, per Fangraphs. The Braves’ odds are 62.1%, reflecting the Braves’ perceived talent advantage and perhaps strength of the remaining schedule.