Republican U.S. Senate candidates are trailing in three key races in swing states amid this year’s election, according to a poll published on Monday.
Control of the Senate is up for grabs in November, as Democrats and Republicans view themselves as having a chance of winning a majority. Democrats, however, are defending several seats in competitive states, meaning they must hold onto nearly every seat they currently hold to retain a majority. Democrats currently hold 51 seats, including four independents who caucus with the party, while Republicans hold 49.
This means the GOP needs to flip only one or two seats to win a majority, depending on who wins the presidential race, as the vice president serves as the tiebreaking vote.
Republicans are already viewed as strong favorites to win the seat being vacated by independent Senator Joe Manchin in West Virginia, one of the most conservative states in the country. Manchin is a former Democrat who still caucuses with the party. Elsewhere, Democrats are defending seats in Republican-leaning Montana and Ohio, as well as battling for victory in races in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
However, a new poll released on Monday by the Independent Center found that Democrats are favored in three crucial Senate races in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The poll surveyed 500 voters in each state from August 8 to 11 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 points in each state.
In Michigan, Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Representative Mike Rogers are running to replace retiring Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow. Slotkin held a 10-point lead over Rogers in the poll (48 to 38 percent), though 15 percent of respondents said they are still unsure of who they are planning to vote for in November.
In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. held a 12-point lead over Republican Dave McCormick (51 to 39 percent), according to the survey. An additional 10 percent said they remain unsure about how they will vote.
Wisconsin Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin held a 9-point lead over her Republican challenger Eric Hovde (50 to 41 percent), with 9 percent of respondents saying they’re not sure who they will vote for.
Newsweek has reached out to each of the campaigns for comment via email, and the Rogers campaign through his contact form.
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Although Democrats are leading in the Independent Center poll, they will still need to win races in more Republican states.
Democratic incumbent Senators Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester are up for reelection in Ohio and Montana, respectively. The most recent polls suggest Brown has a slight lead over Republican challenger Bernie Moreno, but Tester is in a toss-up race against Republican Tim Sheehy.
Democrats view seats in Florida and Texas as potentially competitive, though recent polls still give Republicans an advantage in those states.
A Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research poll conducted among 771 likely voters from June 8 to 9 found former Democratic Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell trailing Republican Senator Rick Scott by 2 points (45 to 43 percent) in the state.
In Texas, an ActiVote poll conducted among 400 likely voters from June 25 to July 18 found Senator Ted Cruz leading Representative Colin Allred by 8 points (54 to 46 percent).