At a bourbon tasting a few weeks back I met Bob, who is in a unique Fantasy Football league called the Mortgage Mafia. They rent out a banquet hall in a hotel in downtown Charlotte every year for their annual draft. Attendance is mandatory, even for those who live out-of-state. No excuses are accepted. One owner had a contagious disease, and they would only let him draft remotely if he provided a doctor’s note. That’s one serious league. And I’m serious when I say to draft the following Sleepers and avoid these Busts for the 2024 season.
SLEEPERS AWAKE
QB Geno Smith — Over his last two NFL seasons, Geno was fifth in TD passes (50), sixth in passing yards (7,906) and a Pro Bowler. Yet his ADP is falling faster than a wingless seahawk. Geno’s targets include the uber-talented D.K. Metcalf, crafty vet Tyler Lockett and budding youngster Jaxon Smith-Njigba. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb favors a long-ball attack, which is perfect for Geno’s skillset. It’s safe to take Geno as your starting QB. After all, he was the seventh-best Fantasy QB in 2022.
RB Austin Ekeler — Ekeler sustained a high-ankle sprain in Week 2 last year and was never the same. A horrendous offensive line only compounded his ineffectiveness. The Chargers may have lost faith in Ekeler, but the Commanders and I still believe. New offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury always had exceptional running games with his Arizona teams. Kingsbury knows the 29-year-old Ekeler is still the same guy that scored 44 TDs the last three years.
WR Diontae Johnson — You might remember Johnson as the Steelers WR that went two years and 119 receptions without scoring a TD. In Johnson’s defense, he was catching passes from the wretched QBs in Pittsburgh. Granted, we must put our faith in Carolina QB Bryce Young, who is coming off a wretched season of his own. But Young threw 79 TDs in his last two collegiate seasons at Alabama. I’m scooping up Johnson in every draft I can. He will be a PPR machine, and if he scores 10 TDs, he will be a top 20 WR.
TE Mike Gesicki — The former Penn State great has never been known as a blocking TE, but Gesicki is a sure-handed receiver. Tight ends in Cincy’s offense average about 50 receptions per year. I’m not drafting Gesicki until the last rounds, but we will know by Week 2 if he’s going to be an integral part of the Bengal offense in a highly anticipated shootout with the Kansas City Chiefs.
BUST A MOVE
QB Aaron Rodgers — Relax, Jets faithful. Rodgers is still an excellent NFL quarterback. But for Fantasy purposes, the stars are not aligned. A balanced attack led by RB Breece Hall will keep opponents honest while Rodgers patiently matriculates down the field. With no need for Rodgers to be a mad bomber, his stats will resemble his last season at Green Bay: 3,500 yards and 25 TD passes. Those numbers would have put him at QB 16 last year, behind the likes of Derek Carr and Sam Howell.
RB Zack Moss — After four solid outings last season for the Colts (445 yards, four TDs), Moss rewarded his disillusioned owners with just 348 yards and three TDs for the last 12 games. The Bengals think he’s a replacement for the departed Joe Mixon. But my money is on second-year man Chase Brown. Moss might start the year slowly anyway with games against solid run defenses like Kansas City, Washington and conference-mates Baltimore and Cleveland. By Week 6 you’ll be asking what can Brown do for you?
WR Khalil Shakir — Contrary to popular belief, Shakir will not be the de facto replacement for departed No. 1 WR Stephon Diggs. Diggs was force-fed targets to keep his big mouth and bigger ego in check, leading to a skewed reality of his production. The Bills won’t be force-feeding the humble Shakir. Newcomer Curtis Samuel should lead the team in receptions and TE Dalton Kincaid and rookie Keon Coleman will keep Shakir in his WR3 role.
TE Pat Freiermuth — The day the Steelers signed former Falcons head coach Arthur Smith as their offensive coordinator was the death knell for Freiermuth. You’ll recall it was Smith who single-handedly ruined the first three years of TE phenom Kyle Pitts in Atlanta. Foolishly using his best players as decoys saddled Smith with a 21-30 record in balmy Atlanta and a one-way ticket to chilly Pittsburgh. I can see a frustrated Freiermuth wistfully hoping for the day Smith gets shipped out of Pittsburgh.
One Mans Opinion — Two nuggets from Fantasy Football guru Jeff Mans in his 2024 Draft Guide, available now on FantasyGuru.com, has Ravens WR Devontez Walker as a deep sleeper and Colts WR Adonai Mitchell as a rookie bust. Get 30% off the subscription price from FantasyGuru.com, the finest source for Seasonal, DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) and Sports Gaming advice. Just go to FantasyGuru.com and enter the code NEW30 for instant savings.
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Bill Reinhard is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, a columnist and artist for FantasyGuru.com, and author of Jets legend Joe Klecko’s Hall of Fame acceptance speech.