La Niña watch is on, but the wait for her to arrive may be longer than initially anticipated.
When the Climate Prediction Center first issued a La Niña watch in June, the national meteorologists said the climate pattern was favored to take hold between July and September. In an update issued Thursday, they said that the timeline has stretched out a bit.
Now, La Niña isn’t predicted to form until the fall, sometime between September and October.
In the meantime, we’re in an “ENSO-neutral” pattern. That means neither La Niña nor El Niño conditions are in place. A neutral pattern is predicted to last a few more months at least, the Climate Prediction Center said.
The delay is good news for Gulf and East Coast states. La Niña years are associated with more, stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.
According to the latest climate modeling, once La Niña forms, there’s a 74% chance it will last through winter. La Niña typically reaches peak strength in the winter, when it has the biggest influence on weather.
A La Niña winter usually means dry, warmer-than-average conditions across the southern half of the country. In Southern California, residents can expect drier winters with reduced rainfall and snowfall. This could exacerbate ongoing drought conditions and increase the risk of wildfires, particularly in the fall and early winter.
Climate experts say Northern California, while less predictable, may also experience below-average precipitation. However, the region’s response to La Niña is more variable, and in some instances, it could still see periods of heavy rainfall.
The Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley tend to get more precipitation, and northern states can see extra-cold weather.