For our MLB player prop picks today we will once again be diving into the MLB home run betting market. We had another good day yesterday, getting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to come through for us in the first inning, so let’s try to stay hot today.
Byron Buxton Home Run (+300) FanDuel
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins, 2:10 p.m. ET
Buxton has been on fire over the past month, and is having a very good year in general, he just has an issue staying healthy. He has been healthy since July, though, and has avoided injury in the five or so weeks since July 1. In this stretch, he has hit six home runs with eight doubles, giving him an ISO rate of .356. All of his advanced stats look phenomenal as well, with a barrel rate of 23.5%, HardHit rate of 51% and average exit velocity of 94.2MPH, all with a launch angle of 21.3 degrees.
He has a great opportunity to continue mashing today against Chris Flexen, the right-handed pitcher for the White Sox. Of all pitchers who have thrown at least 110 innings, Flexen has the ninth-worst HR/9 in the MLB at 1.44. Over his past 10 starts he has been slightly worse, with a HR/9 of 1.54 in that stretch. The biggest issue with Flexen is allowing batters to put the ball in the air, as he’s given up a fly-ball rate of 46.9% over the same 10 start span.
The pitch-mix lines up perfectly for Buxton to take Flexen yard as well. Flexen throws a 4-seam fastball 38.3% of the time, his most frequent pitch, and Buxton’s best pitch to hit for power is the 4-seamer, with an ISO rate of .298 against that pitch. From there, Flexen throws a cutter 26.9% of the time, which is another pitch that Buxton crushes, admittedly in a small sample size.
Francisco Lindor Home Run (+330) FanDuel
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels, 4:07p.m. ET
While Lindor does not have an extra-base hit since his home run binge a couple weeks ago, he has a great opportunity to break that streak today. He hit a ridiculous five home runs in a four-game span from July 22-July 26, and has yet to go yard since. With that said, he has a solid matchup against Griffin Canning, the starting pitcher for the Angels, and he has been hot at the plate recently.
Yesterday alone, Lindor had three HardHits and a launch angle of 20.9 degrees. That combination of hitting the ball hard while also putting it in the air is what we love to see for home run betting specifically. Overall, Since July 1, he has an ISO rate of .259 and a barrel rate of 13.8%.
In terms of the pitching matchup, Canning is definitely a pitcher that you want to target for batter home run props.
In his last 10 starts, Canning has been hit hard, allowing a HR/9 of 1.69, and this is another situation where the batter-pitcher matchup should favor the batter. Lindor is a switch-hitter so he will be batting left-handed going up against the right-handed Canning, and Canning struggles against lefties. He has allowed 12 home runs to lefties to only nine against righties in roughly the same at-bats, with all his stats across the board worse against left-handed hitters.
Rafael Devers Home Run (+375) BetMGM
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers, 2:35 p.m. ET
For our final pick of the day, we are going with the Red Sox third baseman, who has hit two home runs in his last four games, breaking out of the mini-slump he was on post-All Star break. He did not hit a home run in his first 10 games back from the break, but has now hit two in four games. He has at least two HardHits in each of these last four games as well, with a total of nine in these four games.
Overall, Devers has the third-best ISO rate in MLB at .305, with a barrel rate of 14.9%, which is the 12th-best barrel rate in the MLB. He is even better against right-handed pitching, which is what he is facing tonight in Nathan Eovaldi. His ISO rate against RHP jumps up to .383, all the way up from .179 against LHP. 21 of his 25 home runs have come off against righties, and he has good stats against Eovaldi’s pitch-mix too.
Eovaldi throws a 4-seam fastball 37.3% of the time, a splitter 30.8% of the time, and a curveball 14.7% of the time, making up the majority of his pitch-mix. Devers, meanwhile, has an ISO rate of .427 against 4-seamers, .333 against splitters and .406 against curveballs. Here’s hoping that Devers stays hot and is able to hit one yard against Eovaldi tonight.
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