The ’24 Rox are not the ’16 Rox, and that’s a problem

Some folks at 20th and Blake, including manager Bud Black, GM Bill Schmidt, and veteran pitcher Kyle Freeland, believe the Rockies are primed to turn a corner. For them, becoming a .500 team, maybe even a playoff contender, as soon as next season, is not a pipe dream.

Color me skeptical.

Not only are the Rockies likely headed toward their second consecutive 100-loss season, but the 2024 Rockies are not the 2016 Rockies, and that’s a problem.

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The ’16 season is largely forgotten — understandably so. Under manager Walt Weiss, Colorado finished 75-87, third in the National League West, 16 games behind the Dodgers.

Yet there were hints of what was to come in 2017-18 when the Rockies, under Black, made the postseason in back-to-back seasons for the only time in their history.

“There is no doubt in my mind we were turning the corner,” Weiss told me before the Braves beat the Marlins on Thursday. Weiss has been Atlanta’s bench coach since 2018.

Weiss left the Rockies after the 2016 season when he clashed with former GM Jeff Bridich, who wanted Weiss gone, ASAP.

Still, Weiss knew he was leaving a team on the cusp of becoming a contender.

“We had all of those young pitchers on the brink of becoming big leaguers,” Weiss said. “We already had a strong lineup, great position players. Great clubhouse. There was a new rotation waiting to be plugged in in ’17, and the young pitchers were very talented.

“With that little run that the Rockies had in ’17 and ’18, I think they had the best overall pitching they’ve have ever had.”

The 2017 team saw the emergence of Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela and Jon Gray (in his second full season). Plus, Bridich signed Greg Holland as the closer, and he delivered 41 saves over 57 1/3 innings.

In 2016, Colorado’s lineup was already loaded. Nolan Arenado hit .294 with 41 homers. DJ LeMahieu won the NL batting title with a .348 average and 11 homers. Charlie Blackmon hit .324 with 29 homers. Carlos Gonzalez hit .298 with 25 homers.

As a rookie shortstop, Trevor Story hit 27 homers in just 97 games before tearing a ligament in his left thumb. The Rockies were 52-52 on July 30 when Story was injured during a game at Citi Field vs. the Mets.

The Rockies went 23-35 the rest of the way as the rotation wobbled and the bullpen imploded.

But the seeds of success were planted.

Schmidt believes something similar is happening now. Indeed, he projected a brighter future during the winter meetings in 2022.

“We’re not where we need to be, but I use the bamboo theory,” Schmidt said. “There’s a lot of stuff growing underneath that people don’t see, and it’s gonna pop here. When it does, we’re going to be good.”

Schmidt’s belief that the Rockies are “gonna pop” — as soon as next season — certainly factored into their wallflower stance at the trade deadline. Schmidt wasn’t ready to trade core players, especially when he didn’t get any worthy offers.

But unless offseason extensions are worked out, right-handed starters German Marquez and Cal Quantrill, lefty starter Austin Gomber, and starting second baseman Brendan Rodgers will all be in the final year of their contracts entering 2025.

That’s why next season is so critical and why Schmidt needs to make some aggressive, savvy moves — beginning this offseason.

The future rotation has potential and has a chance to remind us of the stellar 2017-18 crew. Freeland is returning to form. Marquez, presumably, will come back strong from Tommy John surgery. The same goes for Senzatela.

Quantrill (if he’s not traded in the offseason) and Gomber (ditto) are capable of solid innings, and righty Ryan Feltner, though a work in progress, has the raw stuff to be a force. Lefty Carson Palmquist and right-handers Chase Dollander and Gabriel Hughes are prospects with promising futures.

But I’m not bullish about the bullpen, which entered the weekend with a 5.56 ERA, the worst in the majors. Right-hander Victor Vodnik has shown promise as a future closer, but if Schmidt wants to turn the corner next season, he must find a veteran late-inning reliever and fill other holes.

Yet that isn’t even the Rockies’ biggest shortcoming: The primary reason I can’t equate the ’24 team with the ’16 team is their lackluster lineup.

Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar and center fielder Brenton Doyle are All-Star worthy and pillars of the franchise. Third baseman Ryan McMahon remains on the cusp of being a difference-making player, but he’s incredibly streaky and has never come close to Arenado in Arenado’s prime.