President Joe Biden is working to hold off pressure from Democrats at the highest levels calling for him to bow out of the 2024 election to make way for a new nominee and avoid widespread losses.
But if he does drop out, what happens next?
The calls come as the party stares down the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next month, which will play a pivotal role no matter Biden’s decision.
Still, as more Democratic members of Congress called for Biden to drop out Friday — bringing the total since his disastrous debate against former President Donald Trump to at least 30 — the president remained confident he is the candidate who can win come November.
Biden and his campaign have insisted he will remain in the race, even as reports rise detailing both public and private calls for him to drop out.
Among the Democrats expressing worries to allies about Biden’s chances were former President Barack Obama and Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, who has privately told Biden the party could lose the ability to seize control of the House if he doesn’t step aside.
It’s unlikely Democrats would be able to push Biden out without his consent. That’s because every state has already held its presidential primary. Democratic rules mandate that the delegates Biden won remain obligated to support him at the party’s upcoming national convention unless he tells them he’s leaving the race.
The most likely scenario would involve Biden choosing to drop out of the race. There’s still time for that to happen, but time is running out as the DNC nears and the party pushes forward with plans to hold a virtual roll call before the convention.
What would happen next if Biden drops out?
According to NBC News, Democratic Party rules outline what would happen if Biden steps aside before he’s formally nominated, or if there’s a vacancy on the national ticket after Biden officially secures the nomination.
“Note that if this unprecedented situation were to happen, it’s possible the party could vote to change any of the rules around candidate replacement. And if it comes to pass after the convention, it’s possible state laws could complicate efforts to replace Biden on specific ballots,” NBC News reported.
If Biden were to drop out between now and when he’s scheduled to be formally nominated in August, it could create a free-for-all among Democrats since there is no mechanism for him or anyone else to anoint a chosen successor.
It takes a majority of the roughly 4,000 pledged delegates to win the party’s nomination. Biden’s won 3,900 of them. Under recent reforms, the party’s more than 700 superdelegates — Democratic lawmakers and dignitaries — are allowed to vote only if no one wins a majority of pledged delegates on the first ballot, so their votes could be crucial in a contested convention.
Since Biden’s opponents all won effectively no delegates throughout the Democratic nominating process, there’d be a virtual clean slate heading into the convention, and the decision would likely come down to the convention delegates who were initially pledged to Biden.
“Number one is President Biden would have to release his delegates. They are bound on the first ballot no matter what, and that’s almost all 4,000 of the delegates are Biden delegates – they are pledged on the first ballot. The only way that works is if the Rules Committee, which the Biden campaign controls, or the president himself, frees those delegates up,” Pete Giangreco, a Democratic strategist, told NBC Chicago. “The next step in the process then is anyone who wants to put their name in, they need signatures from 300 of those delegates, among those 4,000, and then you begin a process. The most likely person to get 300 signatures would be VP Harris.”
Biden would have some influence over his pledged delegates, but ultimately, they can vote as they please so candidates would likely campaign aggressively to win over each individual delegate.
The party’s charter does contain provisions to replace the nominee in the event of a vacancy, but the measure is intended to be used in case of death, resignation or incapacitation.
Beyond the presidential nomination, however, comes the running mate question.
“Then you have a really interesting conversation about the VP candidate,” Giangreco said. “It’s something that would make the convention must-see TV.”
This flow chart provides a look at the potential scenarios: