STORY: Smead based his argument on data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve that measures household equities as a percentage of total assets.
“When you look at that data set, highs in that data set are very damning for forward returns,” said Smead. “We’re at the highest level of household ownership of U.S. stocks in the history of that data set.”
Despite what he sees as an overall decline in the benchmark S&P 500 over the next decade, Smead believes bank and cyclical stocks may be good bets.
Another suggestion? Avoid “maybe 50%” of S&P 500 stocks, Smead said.
“Most of good investing is a negative art,” he explained. “It’s not necessarily what you own, it’s what you don’t own. And I think that will very much be the strongest indication of how stock investors do in this next era. What you don’t own will benefit you greatly.”