CHICAGO — As of Thursday morning, the Chicago White Sox were a Major League Baseball-worst 25-63, and plenty of trade speculation has surrounded the team — Especially when it comes to Chicago’s top talent in Luis Robert Jr, Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde.
While it would be more than ideal to lockdown the three of them to longer-term deals as building blocks of the future, signs point toward a strong possibility of most, if not all, being traded by the July 30, 6 p.m. ET deadline.
With that in mind, here are three trade breakdowns the White Sox could pursue for the three best players on their roster, should they decide to hit the eject button and commit to a full rebuild heading into next year.
1. Luis Robert Jr.
A once-upon-a-time top five prospect and a true five-tool player, Robert Jr’s 2023 season serves as example of what he can become for any team — A bona fide superstar.
Robert Jr finished in the top ten of several offensive departments in the American League last season, including extra-base hits (T-2nd – 75), home runs (3rd – 38), slugging percentage (3rd – .542), OPS (5th – .857), total bases (7th – 296), OPS+ (7th – 103.1) and doubles (T-9th – 36). He posted career highs in games played, at-bats, doubles, home runs, RBI and steals.
The Ciego de Avila, Cuba-native also became the first player in franchise history to record 35-plus doubles, 35-plus home runs, 80-plus RBI, 90-plus runs scored and 20-plus stolen bases in a single season, all the while playing Gold Gove-caliber defense in center field (He won a Gold Glove his rookie year during the COVID-shortened 2020 season).
The asterisk that always comes next to Robert Jr’s name is his health, though.
As The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal talked about on Foul Territory during the second week of June, Robert Jr just hasn’t made himself all that available over the last four years.
As of July 4, he has played in 344 out of 574 possible games since the beginning of the 2021 MLB season, just 59.9% of the White Sox games over that span.
This, paired with his rising club options of $20 million a year for 2026 and 2027 may lead some teams to err on the side of caution, and limit the haul Chicago could get in return for their star center fielder.
“Those are not exorbitant salaries for a player of Luis Robert Jr’s abilities, in fact, they’re bargains,” Rosenthal said. “The question is, will he be on the field to earn that money?
“That’s the problem teams are going to have to look at with Luis Robert Jr … I would expect it to be a pretty big return, but it wouldn’t be Juan Soto-esque, let’s put it that way.”
Ideal Trade Scenario
While the White Sox do own the highest payroll in the AL Central, prevailing sentiment would have them take a way back to playoff contention similar to that of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles — Choke the farm system with so much talent that a number of prospects have to perform well in the big leagues, and eventually Chicago will have a cost-effective winner.
Or at least that’s what team owner Jerry Reinsdorf is probably hoping for.
Among teams in playoff contention who would benefit from an immediate upgrade in center field, the St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox, Kansas City Royals and Orioles stand out the most.
Given the White Sox probably don’t like the idea of sending Robert Jr to Kansas City to form a dynamic duo with Bobby Witt Jr, they would also probably like to completely move him out of the American League if it comes down to trading him.
So, St. Louis would be the most ideal trade partner in this scenario.
Keeping Rosenthal’s sentiment in mind that the package offered will likely fall short of a Juan Soto-type of haul — Three MLB Top 100-level prospects and two more at the club Top 10-level when he was traded from the Washington Nationals, or three-to-four MLB impact players and one-to-two club Top 10-level prospects when he was traded from the San Diego Padres — Here’s what the White Sox may be able to get from the Cardinals in a hypothetical trade.
Cardinals get:
OF Luis Robert Jr
White Sox get:
LHP Quinn Matthews (No. 99 prospect in MLB), OF Victor Scott II (No. 3 prospect in STL), RHP Andre Granillo (No. 26 prospect in STL), OF Dylan Carlson
Explanation:
When giving up a player like Robert Jr, I would expect a return of at least two top 100-ish prospects and a player who’s already at the Major League level who has a chance to realistically contribute to a big league ball club.
Scott II and Granillo are already sitting at the Triple-A level, with Matthews has climbed quickly to Double-A, and Carlson is another young, oft-injured outfielder with the potential to be an above-average bat who has spent the first five seasons of his career with St. Louis.
When it comes to Matthews, he is a skinny 6-foot-5-inch-tall, left-handed pitcher with a four-pitch repertoire that features a fastball, changeup, slider and a curveball.
Of the four pitches, his changeup, fastball and slider all graded as above average or better, according to mlb.com, but his best pitch is his changeup.
That offering averages 12-13 inches of break and sits at about 80 mph, which pairs well with a fastball that had an average velocity of 94.8 mph in 2023. Coming in third is his tight, mid-80’s slider, which scouts say is a legitimate swing-and-miss pitch, while his curveball is his worst offering, but not a bad one, as he continues to refine it into a plus pitch in pro ball.
In his first season in pro ball, Matthews has climbed from Low-A to Double-A, posting a 6-2 record with a 2.03 ERA across 14 starts. In those 14 starts, Matthews has struck out 113 batters in 79.2 innings pitched, while walking only 23 hitters along the way.
Scott’s two best traits are his legs and his glove, where mlb.com gives him an 80 and a 70 grade, respectively. A lefty-lefty center fielder, Scott tied the minor league-lead with 94 stolen bases between High-A and Double-A last season, while slashing .303/.369/.425 in 618 plate appearances in 2023.
He hasn’t performed well at the Major League level this year, but with the acquisition of Carlson, that would allow for him to go back down to Triple-A, where he could iron out the kinks in his swing before hopefully returning to the big leagues as a more refined product at the plate.
Granillo is a right-handed relief pitcher who has posted a 1.16 ERA and four saves between Double-A and Triple-A in the Cardinals’ minor league system so far in 2024.
A three-pitch, back-of-the-bullpen type of reliever, Granillo’s fastball sits from 94-96 mph and can go as high as 98 at times, but it’s his 49% whiff rate on his slider and 17 inches of run on his changeup that have made him effective against hitters on both sides of the plate in the minors, and would make him a candidate that could immediately contribute to the White Sox ‘pen in the majors.
Carlson’s best year at the Major League level came during his sophomore season, where he slashed .266/.343/.437 with 31 doubles, four triples, 18 home runs and 65 RBI.
If Carlson can find a way to remain healthy and produce those numbers, he would be a serviceable replacement until Chicago can find a promising prospect to take over in center field.
2. Garrett Crochet
If I were to advocate for any player to stay on the White Sox roster and be a part of their plans for the future, it would be Crochet, but that’s a topic for another time, and I’m going to stick with the full fire sale narrative here.
Crochet has some of the best stuff in baseball when it comes to movement on his power pitches.
His repertoire features a fastball that regularly touches 98-99 mph and has been described by teammates as being a “mystery meat fastball,” as in it has a tendency to run in several different directions — Left, right, up, down — And it’s unpredictable from pitch-to-pitch knowing which direction it will run.
When paired with above average offerings in the form of a cutter and a changeup, Crochet doesn’t even need to factor in his fourth offering — A slider that’s still in the works as an out pitch — When he’s at the top of his game.
Heck, when Crochet is rocking on the mound, he doesn’t even really need his changeup either. His June 13 start was emblematic of just that.
On that day, Crochet went seven innings where he gave up two hits and one earned run with 13 strikeouts on 102 pitches.
Of those 102 pitches, Crochet threw 71 fastballs, 30 cutters and just one changeup.
Overall, Crochet leads MLB in strikeouts (141) and strikeouts-per-nine-innings (12.5) as of July 4, and was voted American League Pitcher of the Month after posting a 1.91 ERA with 56 strikeouts over six starts in June.
When it comes to having that kind of stuff at the top of your rotation, several teams in both leagues, namely Baltimore who has a gapping need for starting pitching in their rotation, should make calls on Crochet with hefty trade packages in tow.
Ideal Trade Scenario
As previously mentioned, the Orioles could use another starting pitcher to add to their rotation, and few starters around baseball have as electric stuff as Crochet does.
Just like with Robert Jr, I would expect at least two Top 100 prospects and another impact player capable of contributing at the big league level for Crochet, but I would expect slightly more given how little tread Crochet has on his tires as a starting pitcher, and the level of success he’s experienced so far this season.
Luckily for Chicago, Baltimore has one of the best farm systems in baseball and is more than capable of accommodating such a deal.
Baltimore gets:
LHP Garrett Crochet
Chicago gets:
3B/1B Coby Mayo (No. 18 in MLB), RHP Chayce McDermott (No. 8 prospect in BAL), RHP Justin Armbruester (No. 20 prospect in BAL), LHP Cole Irvin
Explanation:
In giving up Crochet, the White Sox would get back a prospect in Mayo that could step in at third or first and develop into a legitimate all-star caliber bat, depending on if or when Chicago moves on from Yoan Moncada or Andrew Vaughn, while getting two quality pitching prospects and a Major League-level starter to take over Crochet’s spot in the rotation.
Coming out of high school in Florida, Mayo drew comparisons to the Atlanta Braves all-star third baseman Austin Riley, and has shown promise to be just as effective.
As a 21-year-old at the Triple-A level last year, Mayo hit 29 home runs with a .973 OPS and graded out with a 70 rating for his arm talent, showing he can make every throw imaginable from the hot corner.
McDermott, the Orioles’ 2023 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, has a fastball that lives in the mid-90’s (and goes as high as 97 mph) with plus traits, along with two breaking balls capable of being effective out pitches — A sweeping slider and a curveball.
So far at Triple-A Norfolk this season, McDermott has a 2-5 record with a 3.58 ERA in 16 starts, where he’s pitched 83 innings and racked up 121 strikeouts, compared to 47 walks.
Armbruester is a physically imposing pitcher on the mound. Standing in at 6-foot-5-inches tall and 250 pounds, the right hander has a wide-ranging arsenal that scouts say he tinkers with often.
According to mlb.com, he’s currently pitching at the Triple-A level and has a five-pitch repertoire that features a fastball, slider, cutter, curveball and a changeup. His fastball sits low-to-mid 90’s, which he pairs well with a sweeping slider and his cutter from what is described as an “awkward” and “funky” delivery.
Armbruester went 6-6 with a 3.56 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A last season, but has struggled mightily at Triple-A this year, posting a. 8.36 ERA in 15 starts, making him an easier inclusion that could benefit from a change of scenery.
Irvin is currently listed as Baltimore’s third starter and is pitching for the club on a one-year/$2 million contract in his age 30 season. In 14 starts for the Orioles, Irvin is 6-5 with a 4.13 ERA and offers the White Sox a cheap stopgap to fill a rotation spot, should they want to keep him around past this year, until one of their younger prospects is ready to pitch full-time at the big league level.
3. Erick Fedde
According to multiple reports, Fedde was a fairly well sought after starting pitcher this past offseason before signing with the White Sox.
After going on hiatus to rediscover his pitching repertoire in South Korea, Fedde 2.0 has established himself as a capable starter who could function as an upper-middle of the rotation pitcher for a team in postseason contention.
In 18 games started for the White Sox so far this season, Fedde has posted a 6-3 record with a 3.13 ERA and 4.1 WAR, which is second among all MLB pitchers, according to ESPN.
Those numbers alone should make Fedde a hot commodity on the trade market, and net the White Sox a quality return, should he be traded.
With Baltimore already listed as a trade partner above, the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers are other teams in need of starting pitchers to bolster the depth of their rotation as October draws near.
For the sake of consistency, let’s go with the Brewers since a Fedde move to Milwaukee would get him out of the American League, and put him in prime position to do damage against the White Sox North Side rivals, the Cubs.
Ideal Trade Scenario
Since trading staff ace Corbin Burnes to the Orioles last offseason, the Brewers have been light at the Major League level on starting pitchers, and as of July 3, had only three healthy starters listed in their rotation on Baseball Reference.
With that in mind, Fedde would be a welcome addition in Milwaukee, and he would immediately find himself atop a rotation primed to play October baseball.
Brewers get:
RHP Erick Fedde
White Sox get:
1B Tyler Black (No. 34 prospect in MLB, No. 3 prospect in MIL), RHP Logan Henderson (No. 16 prospect in MIL)
Explanation:
If Chicago were to trade Crochet to the Orioles and get Mayo in return, then a trade of Fedde to the Brewers for a prospect like Tyler Black could set them up at the corners for years to come.
The conundrum of what to do with Moncada and Vaughn would remain, but Black’s tools offer a tantalizing package that’s built for today’s version of baseball.
Rated as a 60 contact hitter with a 45 grade for power and a 60 grade for running by mlb.com, Black has a rare combination of hitting and speed on the base paths that could play well into the White Sox philosophy of playing FAST, or Fast, Aggressive, Smart and Technically sound, as manager Pedro Grifol would describe it.
Black posted a slash line of .284/.417/.513 over 123 games in Milwaukee’s minor league system ain 2023, with his .930 OPS, 12 triples, 55 extra-base hits and 55 steals placing first among all Brewers’ prospects.
Henderson’s inclusion in this deal would be to compensate for the loss of an MLB pitcher with a prospect with some upside down the road.
Milwaukee is a franchise known to scour the junior college ranks for prospects, and Henderson is a prime example of them doing that.
In 2021, Henderson led junior college baseball with 169 strikeouts and went on to win the JuCo World Series MVP award for McLennan Community College in Texas, which led to the Brewers selecting him in the fourth round of that year’s draft.
A bit undersized at 5-foot-11-inches tall and 194 pounds, mlb.com says Henderson has above average control over his pitching repertoire and pairs a 92 mph fastball with a low 80’s changeup that projects to be a high-quality out pitch at the Major League level.
In 2023, Henderson notched a 2.75 ERA with 106 strikeouts to just 26 walks in 78.2 innings pitched across Milwaukee’s minor league system. Of note, his 35.2% strikeout rate ranked 4th out of 661 minor league arms with at least 70 innings pitched last season.
*This is part one of a two-part breakdown of possible trade scenarios for the Chicago White Sox as the MLB trade deadline approaches. Check back in Saturday, when Eli Ong will take a look at possible destinations for players like Michael Kopech, Tommy Pham, Gavin Sheets and more.