(NEXSTAR) – In its storied 150-year history, there is an infamous starting gate position that has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner.
A random drawing decides the post positions – where each of the 20 horses will start the race in relation to each other behind the starting gate. Betting odds will shift based on where horses start and how they respond to certain posts, according to Covers.com, with the biggest swings for No. 1 and the outermost positions.
While post position 5 has had the best record with 10 winners, most recently in 2017, post position 17 is the only one that hasn’t produced a single first-place finish.
Fierceness, a heavy favorite (5-to-2 odds), appeared poised to break the curse after being selected to the dreaded 17th post, until a late scratch knocked Encino out of the Derby, and Fierceness shifted up to 16th.
Taking Fierceness’ spot in 17 is Stronghold, according to Daily Racing Form. At 20-to-1 morning line odds, the Kentucky-born Bay will have to surprise the field on Saturday to give the 17th post its first win.
Horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey told NBC that he would actually prefer the 17th post to some of the inner positions, and suspects the miserable win-loss record is just a statistical anomaly.
“I don’t really think the outside posts are a disadvantage, even though the statistics tell us otherwise,” Dempsey said. “If I liked a horse to win a race and then he drew that 17, 18, or 19 post, that wouldn’t sway me.”
Rounding out the least-winning post positions, according to America’s Best Racing, are 6 and 11, with winning percentages of 2.1 and 2.4, respectively.