NHC Releases ‘Sobering’ Hurricane Milton Map of Worst Scenario

An alarming new graphic showing the worst-case scenario for Hurricane Milton storm surges suggests that waters could reach up to 15 feet above ground level in some parts of Florida.

A 15-foot surge would completely cover a single-story home, and would be approaching the ceiling on the second floor of those with an upper level.

The map was produced by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as a “peak storm surge forecast” on Tuesday, as the Sunshine State braces for a monster Category 5 storm due to hit on Wednesday. It is the highest possible rating, with winds in excess of 150 mph in the Gulf of Mexico as the system moves toward land.

Florida is still recovering from the devastation wreaked by Hurricane Helene’s deadly force two weeks ago—which washed away sand dune defenses and left the ground sodden with rainwater and floods. That is likely to exacerbate flooding risks this time around, experts fear.

The biggest threat to life during a hurricane comes not from the high winds, but the water on the ground, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

“The greatest threat to life actually comes from the water—in the form of storm surge,” the federal agency explains on its website. Surges occur when there is an abnormal rise in sea level caused by a storm, with winds pushing the water inland where it rapidly floods coastal communities.

And now experts at the NHC have worked out just how bad these surges could be as a result of Milton’s power.

The graphic shows how an area along the coast—from the Anclote River down to Englewood and into Tampa Bay—may see a peak storm surge of 10 feet to 15 feet.

The areas above (up to Yankeetown) and below (down to Bonita Beach) could see surges of up to 12 feet. The rest of the western coastline of Florida would see waters ranging from 1 foot to 7 feet, the map suggests. While even much of the eastern coastline could see surges of up to 6 foot.

The map was shared by concerned meteorologists on X (formerly Twitter).

“A sobering forecast from the National Hurricane Center depicting reasonable worst case scenario surge,” wrote atmospheric scientist and storm chaser Matthew Cappucci. “These values could be realized if Milton makes landfall around high tide. Serious danger of significant damage/inundation Tampa Bay to Sarasota to Venice.”

One of the most densely-populated areas in Florida, the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando, is sitting in Milton’s path and millions of Floridians living along thousands of miles of coastline have been ordered to evacuate.

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor issued the starkest of warnings when she said: “There’s never been one like this. Helene was a wake-up call; this is literally catastrophic. And I can say without any dramatization whatsoever: If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you’re gonna die.”

Many heeded the official advice to flee, with roads snarled with traffic jams as residents try to flee to safety, as seen in the video at the top of this article.

Residents should keep up-to-date with their local forecasts, monitor local safety advice, and check whether their homes fall within an evacuation zone on the FloridaDisaster.org website.