Tropical Depression Fourteen, which is forecast to hit western Florida—a region recently battered by Hurricane Helene—is expected to rapidly strengthen and become a hurricane by early Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) advisory on Saturday morning.
The NHC’s advisory forecasts the depression, which has maximum sustained winds around 35 miles per hour, to strengthen into a tropical storm later today, which is classified by having maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph.
The advisory further warns that by early next week, it could intensify into a “major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.” The NHC added that hurricane and storm surge watches will likely be issued for parts of Florida on Sunday.
“There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday,” the center wrote on its website.
Hurricane specialist and storm expert Michael Lowry told Newsweek in an email Saturday that given the storm’s location “beginning in the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico, it has a long runway ahead to strengthen to its east across the Gulf.” The depression is currently moving north-northeast at 3 mph but is expected to increase speed by Monday or Tuesday.
AP Photo/Mike Carlson
Lowry explained that because “water temperatures in its path are at near-record warmth for the time of year” and coupled with “the upper-level winds,” the storm is likely to experience “quick strengthening in the coming days.”
He also mentioned that Milton is the next name on the hurricane list and said the storm could potentially reach Category 3 strength, telling Newsweek, “Many of our most credible intensity models suggest future Milton could become a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane before it reaches Florida by mid-next week.”
Newsweek has reached out to the NHC for additional information via email on Saturday.
The NHC describes Category 3 hurricanes as major storms with sustained winds between 111 and 129 mph, capable of causing “devastating damage.”
Western Florida is expected to receive rain ahead of the storm’s arrival on Sunday and Monday, with heavier rainfall anticipated from Tuesday through Wednesday. “This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding,” the NHC’s advisory stated.
On September 26, Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region as a Category 4 storm, causing widespread devastation across several states, including catastrophic flooding in North Carolina. The storm’s death toll has surpassed 200, according to the Associated Press.