When voters go to the polls in a little more than a month, they should do so with full appreciation for the fact that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are as strong as they’ve been in memory — and we’re talking about the memory of people as advanced in age as Donald Trump or Joe Biden. Probably even Jimmy Carter.
Yes, inflation raged for too long, and it has taken a bite out of the bottom line for many American families. It’s tough to look at high supermarket or department store prices and not feel the pinch week-in, week-out. But it’s under control now, and that negative trend, largely the result of the economy opening up after COVID restrictions and partly the result of macro policies, is more than made up for by other rising tides.
Much of this is to the credit of the Federal Reserve skillfully raising and lowering interest rates. Some of it is the result of Biden and Congress passing initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act, which are sparking major private-sector investments in job-creating industries.
But the larger point is that the real-world health of the American economy is far better than it was when coming out of COVID and far far better than other industrialized nations. So with such positive trends, do we really need a dramatic course correction that Trump claims is required? Especially since his plan for a course correction would explode the deficit — economists at Penn Wharton, Trump’s own alma mater, say so — and drive up consumer prices again through tariffs and lavish the wealthiest among us with massive tax benefits.
The news that the U.S. economy is in damn good health, thank you very much, was underscored in Friday’s job report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts predicted around 150,000 new jobs in September; the economy added 254,000. The unemployment rate fell to a nearly unheard-of 4.1%.
Back in 2012 when Mitt Romney was running against Barack Obama, the Republican mantra was “jobs, jobs, jobs,” and conservatives couldn’t stop talking about low labor-force participation. Well, Americans in prime working age are now in the workforce at levels not seen since 2001. Don’t expect Trump or his running mate JD Vance to acknowledge that; they’re too busy vilifying immigrants for crime, housing prices, fentanyl overdoses and probably weather patterns, too.
Where were the jobs created in September? Nearly 80,000 in leisure and hospitality; nearly 72,000 in health care and social assistance; nearly 25,000 in construction, and 17,000 in professional and business services.
For nearly two years now, economists have been predicting a recession. It just seemed like it was time. But smart action in monetary policy by Fed Chair Jay Powell hasn’t just staved that off; it has produced robust GDP growth; increasing personal incomes; a rising stock market, which is great news for 401(k)s; and projected declines in a deficit that was going up and up and up under Trump. The ranks of those without health insurance has been falling after rising under the last administration.
Whoever wins next month will be helped with a growing economy and a solid jobs market. And that’s something that both parties should agree on.