Photo: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images
The outcomes of the two biggest wars in the world hang in the balance of the American presidential election, even though U.S. troops are not involved in combat in either one.
If Donald Trump wins the election, both wars will get much, much worse.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu both want Trump to win the American presidential election so that they can prolong and intensify their brutal wars without the possibility of American interference.
Netanyahu has conducted his war in Gaza believing that the Biden administration can’t rein him in before the presidential election without risking severe damage to the political prospects of Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Netanyahu has purposefully sought to put the Democrats in a bind between the conflicting political demands of two components of the party’s base — a progressive constituency appalled by the war and a centrist faction that backs Israel. Netanyahu has thus forced the Biden administration to engage in a difficult balancing act: supporting Israel, while still pushing for a ceasefire and the long-term goal of the creation of a Palestinian state — a compromise stance that has outraged progressives while also upsetting many conservative Jewish voters.
But Netanyahu also knows that if Trump wins, he will give Israel a green light to conduct a far more brutal campaign in Gaza, southern Lebanon, and the West Bank than he has during the Biden administration. While Biden has called for limits on Netanyahu’s conduct of the war, he has ultimately not stood in Israel’s way despite a growing groundswell of opposition to the war within the party. Whether that voter pressure might eventually push Harris to put more limits on Israel is an open question. But under no circumstances will Trump pressure Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire and will never demand that Israel agree to the creation of a Palestinian state. Trump will endorse Netanyahu’s push for Israeli control over all remaining Palestinian territory. Many Israelis now want Trump to win in order to allow for a more aggressive Israeli military campaign; a September poll found that 58 percent of Israelis would vote for Trump if they could.
For Netanyahu, escalating the war into a regional conflict against Hezbollah and Iran also provides an October surprise designed to damage Democratic chances in the U.S. election.
Meanwhile, Putin’s war against Ukraine will remain in limbo until the U.S. election is decided. If Trump wins, he will almost certainly withdraw U.S. support for Ukraine, and Putin will be free to mount an even more aggressive military campaign. Trump is also likely to reduce or end the U.S. commitment to NATO, leaving the Baltic states and other countries in Eastern Europe under an increasing threat from Russia.
The central role that American politics plays in both the Russian war in Ukraine and the Israeli wars in Gaza and Lebanon has come into sharp focus over the past few days, culminating in Iran’s missile attack on Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut last Friday.
The Iranian missile strikes against Israel pose a serious threat of provoking a much wider war in the Middle East almost exactly one year after the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas, which triggered Israel’s invasion of Gaza. The Biden administration said that the U.S. is supporting Israel’s defense against the Iranian attack, which included at least 200 ballistic missiles fired at Israel. But United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned against “escalation after escalation” and called for a ceasefire.
The missile strike occurred just after Netanyahu returned to Israel from New York. On that trip, he gave a militant address to the U.N. General Assembly in which he vowed not to stop Israel’s multiplying wars until he achieved “total victory.” While Netanyahu gave his speech at the United Nations, he was really addressing the American voters who will go to the polls in a little more than a month. He wanted his message of total victory — and his Orwellian notion of “de-escalation through escalation” — to be heard loudly on the campaign trail, signaling that he will oppose any peace efforts that the United States might demand if Harris wins.
Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, was also in the United States last week, meeting with both Harris and Trump. The Biden administration pledged $8 billion in more aid to Ukraine, while Trump, who has repeatedly criticized Zelenskyy, pouted and nearly canceled a meeting with the Ukrainian leader.
When they did finally meet, Trump made a point of saying that he has a “very good relationship” with Putin. Trump’s pro-Russian running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, also attacked Zelenskyy for touring an ammunition factory in Pennsylvania where the Ukrainian president thanked the workers for supplying shells for the Ukrainian military. Vance was petulant because Zelenskyy toured the factory with the governor of Pennsylvania, who happens to be a Democrat.
In fact, it is no secret that Trump, Vance, and the MAGA cult that now dominates the Republican Party support Putin and want Russia to win the war and conquer Ukraine. Vance is part of the Christian nationalist base of the party, which loves Putin largely because he has cracked down on gay rights.
For his part, Putin sees Trump as his puppet who will meekly stand by while he conquers Ukraine and rebuilds the Russian empire in Eastern Europe.
Putin is once again working to help Trump win, and just as he did in 2016, he is using the internet to do it. Russian disinformation designed to help Trump is accelerating in the weeks leading up to the election. In September, the U.S. government alleged that a group of right-wing influencers were secretly being funded by Russia. Moscow has worked hard to amplify conspiracy theories and right-wing narratives. Spreading conspiracy theories about racial issues in the United States has long been a staple of Russian propaganda dating back to the Cold War. But Russian disinformation is more effective today than ever before, because Trump willingly echoes it, which leads the docile mainstream press to write about it, creating a horrific echo chamber.
In the aftermath of the 2016 election, Russian meddling in the presidential race in order to help Trump win became an explosive issue, leading to the politically polarizing investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller, which dominated the headlines throughout much of Trump’s time in office. Today, by contrast, Russia’s disinformation campaign designed to help Trump win again is taken for granted, and has been met with a collective shrug by the American public. But if it works to help Trump win, the consequences for the United States and the world will be disastrous.
In fact, the reason both Putin and Netanyahu to win the election is simple: They know that with Trump in the White House, their ruthless wars can continue without even the threat of repercussions.