Former President Donald Trump had a strong final week of September as the race for president enters the home stretch.
With less than six weeks to Election Day, the election remains, by all accounts, a toss-up. But with fewer and fewer opportunities to change the dynamic of the race, any trend or forecast can be enough to break through. Here’s what put some wind in the former president’s sails this week.
Trump Resilient in Three Battleground States
Vice President Kamala Harris still has the lead when it comes to the national polling average, as crunched by The New York Times, FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Polling. But, in an election this close, Trump is maintaining an advantage in a number of the key battleground states that will decide the outcome.
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Data from all three pollsters show Trump leading in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.
“Trump could easily prevail if he gains ground in key states — or if the polls are already underestimating him,” Nate Cohn, the Times‘ chief political analyst, wrote Monday. “A shift or polling miss in his favor would not be uncommon, though of course that is not guaranteed.”
GOP strategist Matt Klink also pointed out that Trump has a history over performing his polls.
“He is noticeably ahead of where he was at this point in the 2016 and 2020 campaigns,” Klink said.
Michael Gordon, a principal at The Gordon Group and a Democratic strategist, however, previously told Newsweek: “Generally speaking Trump is currently polling between where he was in ’16 and ’20 as Election Day approached.”
Corey Lewandowski, an adviser for the Trump campaign, said on a podcast Friday that the Republican nominee is “in the greatest position he’s ever been in.”
“When you look historically, whether it’s 2020 or the 2016 election, he’s in a stronger position now in every one of the battleground states now than he was four or eight years ago,” Lewandowski said.
‘Trump’s Election to Lose’
Gallup released an in-depth analysis Tuesday showing that the Republican Party has the advantage in two of the most important election predicting indicators: party affiliation and the answer to which party is better able to handle the country’s problems.
The analysis found that 48 percent of Americans identify or lean Republican, compared to 45 percent of Americans who identify or lean Democratic. That’s the first time Republicans held an advantage on party ID in two decades.
It also showed that 46 percent say the GOP is better able to handle the country’s most important problem, compared to 41 percent who said the same of the Democratic Party. These two measures have the strongest relationship to past presidential election outcomes.
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“The political environment suggests the election is Trump’s and Republicans’ to lose,” Gallup’s analysis reads.
Neither party has the advantage when it comes to their favorability rating and congressional job approval. Republicans have the advantage in all of Gallup’s other predicting measures. Is that enough to send Trump back to the White House?
“Eight of nine of Gallup’s historical indicators point in a GOP direction and this is an important indicator of the prevailing winds in [Trump’s] campaign,” political expert Steven Schier told Newsweek.
“Trump’s personal unpopularity is keeping the race close for Harris despite these prevailing winds.”
Although 46 percent of Americans rated Trump favorably in Gallup’s September poll, the former president’s unfavorable rating is seven points higher than his favorable score. Harris also has a higher unfavorable than favorable rating, with 54 percent finding her unfavorable and 44 percent finding her favorable.
Put another way, both candidates are more popular than they’ve ever been, while also being underwater.
“The 2024 presidential election may be a race between favorable GOP conditions and Trump’s personal unpopularity,” Schier said. “Harris in this situation needs to sell herself as an acceptable alternative to those disliking Trump personally to close the deal.”
Republicans Flip the Script on Early Voting
Democrats have long had the vote-by-mail advantage, with more Republicans opting to vote in-person on Election Day. The GOP is hoping to change that this year.
Despite Trump’s efforts to undermine early voting in 2020, the Republican National Committee has embraced such participation this election cycle. Even Trump has changed his tune, telling his supporters to vote early while at the same time calling the process “stupid.”
New data from Decision Desk HQ suggests that those GOP efforts could be paying off. The Democrats‘ edge in vote-by-mail requests has shrunk significantly in key states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida where that advantage has declined over 35 percent, nearly 15 percent over 5 percent, respectively.
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“Republicans realized that they were hurt in 2020 because they did not embrace voting by mail,” Klink told Newsweek. “They have pursued early voting strategies in 2024 and will be aided by the voting rules not changing because of COVID, like they did four years ago.”
Schier called the shift in voting trends “a promising indicator for the GOP.”
Economic Anxieties Offer More Welcome GOP News
Consumers’ views on the economy tumbled the most in three years, according to new data released Tuesday.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index slid to 98.7 in September, down 105.6 from August, marking the biggest one-month decline since August 2021. Dana Peterson, the chief economist at the board, said that this month, consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative and they became more pessimistic about future labor market conditions.
The drop in confidence will likely be well received by Republicans, who voters say are better equipped to handle the most important voting issue for Americans: the economy.
The confidence numbers come despite other positive economic data that would be expected to benefit Harris, including record highs for the stock market, lower interest rates and plummeting gas prices. Still, according to Gallup, the GOP retains a six-point edge as the party that Americans think would do a better job of keeping the country prosperous.
“Gallup has asked this question since 1951. In 16 presidential elections since then when one party has had at least a minimal advantage on this measure, that party has won 12 times,” said Jeffrey Jones, Gallup senior editor overseeing U.S. polling and analysis.
“In spite of a close election, GOP popularity is surging across the US, driven in a large part by voter economic concerns,” Klink said. “Families and businesses are not better off than they were four years ago and the cultural divide is more intense than ever.”
Political strategist Jay Townsend told Newsweek that if the election tuns out solely on this issue, “Trump will have the upper hand.” But he said if there’s a chance that voters become more motivated by abortion rights, tax policy and social programs, that advantage will flip.
“Both candidates are now engaged in the battle to define the terms of the election. The winner will be the who does the better job,” Townsend said.