Warriors beat writer Danny Emerman shares his thoughts on the NBA offseason and beyond
There’s no need for the Warriors to pay Jonathan Kuminga a maximum contract extension before the upcoming Oct. 21 deadline. And there’s no need for Kuminga to accept any offer less than that before then, either.
Patience is a virtue, in this rare case, for both labor and management.
According to multiple reports, Golden State isn’t prepared to offer Kuminga the full five-year, $224 million maximum rookie extension Scottie Barnes, Evan Mobley, and Franz Wagner got. Based on his upside and the league’s precedent, that figure is what Kuminga and his camp should seek.
Kuminga and Moses Moody are each extension-eligible. The Warriors hammered out a deal with Steph Curry, tacking on an extra year at $62.6 million to his deal, but rushing to extend the young wings makes much less sense. The Warriors, instead, should see if they — Kuminga in particular — go out and earn it.
Unlike Wagner, Barnes, Mobley or Cade Cunningham, Kuminga hasn’t shown an elite-level skill capable of driving a team. Wagner’s a super-sized all-around slasher, Mobley an elite, switchable defender, Barnes a playmaking offensive engine.
The closest Kuminga has come to establishing a blue-chip skill is as a downhill wrecking ball. A terror in transition, Kuminga ranked in the 79.7th percentile in fast-break scoring efficiency and shot 72.9% at the rim. Already an above-average isolation scorer, he overpowers smaller defenders and is too quick for bigger ones.
But Kuminga hasn’t scratched the surface of what he can be as a defender, hasn’t yet calibrated his 3-point shot, must improve as a rebounder, and can stagnate offensive possessions. For all those reasons, there are real concerns about how to fit him into Golden State lineups.
Kuminga made substantial strides last season, but that’s a lot of question marks for a commitment north of $40 million per year.
It’s not all Kuminga’s fault that he hasn’t reached the levels of his 2021 draft class counterparts. He joined a championship-level Warriors team and didn’t get a real shot to contribute consistently until this past season. It’s hard to develop without playing real minutes every game. Top picks are often handed the car keys right away; Kuminga had a learner’s permit.
But extending Kuminga now would be premature. The Warriors should know the feeling, having paid Jordan Poole before they had to (though there were obvious extenuating circumstances).
Letting Kuminga play the season out in the last year of his deal doesn’t mean Golden State would lose him. He’d be a restricted free agent next summer, allowing the Warriors to retain him by matching any offer sheet a team puts in front of him.
Under the new collective bargaining agreement, restricted free agency could become more of a tool to maintain homegrown talent instead of automatically handing huge deals to former top picks. Drafting and developing winning players is still paramount, but the apron system puts more pressure on every dollar on the payroll.
It also limits the pool of teams who could feasibly line up for a player like Kuminga. Situations will change, but there are only seven teams with projected cap space of over $40 million for the 2025-26 season, per Spotrac. They’d help determine Kuminga’s market, with Golden State maintaining control.
Also, as The Athletic noted, extending Kuminga before Oct. 21 greatly complicates the Warriors’ ability to package him in a trade, as he’d be poison-pilled.
Everything points to a wait-and-see approach.
The best-case scenario: Kuminga plays out of his mind in a true breakout season, helps the Warriors to the postseason, and earns every penny of a max deal — to come in the form of a new contract after the season. If that happens, the Warriors would be thrilled to pay him.
That’d be a win-win; it just would take a little patience.
Jimmy Butler interest?
The Athletic’s Sam Amick said on Tim Kawakami’s “TK Show” podcast this week that Golden State inquired about Jimmy Butler, who’s in a lame-duck contract year.
Pat Riley made pointed comments after the Heat got eliminated, saying that “being available every night” weighs heavily on Miami’s decision on whether or not to extend Butler.
Butler is 35. He has missed over a quarter of his games in the past five seasons and has played over 70 games just once in his career.
It makes sense why Golden State would sniff around the situation. They’re clearly motivated to add a star-level player next to Steph Curry, and Butler is terrific when he’s available — particularly in the postseason.
The Heat wouldn’t want to lose Butler for nothing in free agency, but they also probably want to keep him for the 2024-25 season. Although they’re clearly not at Boston’s level in the Eastern Conference, they have depth and could elevate into contention if everything goes their way: Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic take leaps, Butler stays healthy, Bam Adebayo continues to ascend and Terry Rozier gets more comfortable in their system.
If the Warriors put in a call or two on Butler, the Heat almost certainly would want Kuminga in return. Trading young for old — typically a bad idea — becomes doubly risky when the young player in question has proven to be durable and the veteran has been injury prone.
Butler is right at the line of players the Warriors should consider trading Kuminga for. He might just be the threshold. Paul George? Sure. Butler? I’d probably hang up the phone.
The Warriors like Kuminga too much to trade him but not enough to give him a maximum extension. That’s an awkward position, but it’s not crazy.
*Ducks*
The Giants wanted Marco Luciano to be their everyday shortstop entering spring training, then he booted every other ball that came his way. They optioned him after he committed five errors in nine games.
After jettisoning Jorge Soler at the trade deadline, Farhan Zaidi said San Francisco was clearing the designated hitter spot for Luciano. That lasted five games over two weeks.
The Giants shifted Luciano to second base, only to start Donovan Walton over him on Friday.
Luciano, the former top prospect, doesn’t have a home run this season. He battled back issues as he rose through the minors, when San Francisco missed any opportunity they might’ve had to trade him for anything of value. The idea of Luciano has been tantalizing for years, but nothing tangible has materialized.
Nobody wants to say it, but Luciano just might be the James Wiseman of the Giants.