Best Bet
BENGALS at CHIEFS
Time: 3:25 p.m., CBS 2.
Line: Chiefs by 5.
Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bengals 0-1/0-1;
Chiefs 1-0/1-0.
There are many challengers to Patrick Mahomes as the reigning king of NFL quarterbacks — including 11 who already have an average annual salary higher than Mahomes’ current $45 million per season.
But only the Bengals’ Joe Burrow has beaten Mahomes when it counts. Burrow, in fact, is 3-1 against Mahomes in his career, including a 27-24 victory in the AFC Championship Game following the 2021 regular season. The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, already a two-time MVP, is 1-5 against Mahomes. The Bills’ Josh Allen, who arguably has the best credentials of them all as a Mahomes challenger, is 3-4 against him — including 0-3 in the playoffs. Ouch!
Still, there’s only one Mahomes, and not even Burrow can keep up with him. They’re both human, but Burrow is just a little more human. He already has had two season-ending injuries in four years. As a rookie in 2020, he tore his ACL and missed the final six games. Last year he tore a ligament in his right wrist and missed the final seven games.
Mahomes? He has missed two games because of injury in six seasons as a starter — two nonconference games in the middle of the 2019 season that had no impact on the Chiefs’ playoff seeding.
He has had some close calls. In 2020, Mahomes missed the fourth quarter of the Chiefs’ playoff opener against the Browns while being evaluated for a concussion. The Chiefs survived and Mahomes returned and didn’t miss another play in the postseason. In 2021, Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain against the Jaguars. That’s a four-to-six week injury for most players. Mahomes missed one series, returned the next week, played through it and won the Super Bowl.
Burrow has returned from the wrist injury but might still be showing the effects of either the injury or the layoff. He was noticeably un-Burrow-like in a 16-10 loss to the Patriots in Week 1 — throwing for 164 yards (5.7 per attempt, well below his 7.4 career average), a long play of 28 yards, no touchdowns and a pedestrian 86.0 rating.
Burrow started slowly last season after a training-camp calf injury but found his groove in Week 5 — he had a 106.5 rating in six games before the wrist injury ended his season. He probably won’t need that many games this time, and the matchup with Mahomes surely will turn his focus up to 11. But even for Burrow, this seems like too much too soon.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Bengals 17.
TOP PLAYS
JETS at TITANS
Time: Noon.
Line: Jets by 3½.
Total: 40½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jets 0-1/0-1; Titans 0-1/0-1.
Outlook: Aaron Rodgers figures to be better after showing obvious rust in his first game in a year in Week 1 — 13 of 21 for 167 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT for an 82.8 rating before being pulled for Tyrod Taylor in a blowout home loss to the 49ers. Titans QB Will Levis also figures to be better after struggling against the Bears defense last week — 19 of 32, 127 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs. But he’s not Aaron Rodgers.
Pick: Jets 23, Titans 16.
CHARGERS at PANTHERS
Time: Noon.
Line: Chargers by 6.
Total: 39.
Records (overall/ATS): Chargers 1-0/1-0; Panthers 0-1/0-1.
Outlook: Jim Harbaugh’s impact on the Chargers and Justin Herbert is already being felt — Chargers rushed for 176 yards and Herbert threw for just 144 in a 22-10 win over the Raiders. The Panthers and Bryce Young (161 yards, 2 INTs, 32.8) looked hapless in a 47-10 road loss to the Saints. Riding the Harbaugh train until it goes off the tracks.
Pick: Bolts 31, Panthers 17.
RAMS at CARDINALS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: Cardinals by 1.
Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Rams 0-1/0-1;
Cardinals 0-1/1-0.
Outlook: Both teams played well in defeat on the road against playoff opponents in their opener — Rams lost in OT to the Lions; Cardinals lost 34-28 to the Bills. Puka Nacua, who had 1,486 receiving yards last season is on IR with a knee injury. But the Rams are 7-0 SU/ATS against the Cardinals on the road under Sean McVay.
Pick: Rams 19, Cards 17.
THE REST OF THE GAMES
BEARS at TEXANS
Time: 7:20 p.m., NBC 5.
Line: Texans by 6. Total: 45½.
Records (overall/ATS): Texans 1-0/0-1;
Bears 1-0/1-0.
Outlook: Nothing seems to change with the Bears, who go into a prime-time matchup with a standout defense that had three takeaways vs. the Titans, but an offense that produced just 148 yards and three FGs — and now has Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze banged up.
Pick: Texans 20, Bears 13.
BUCCANEERS at LIONS
Time: Noon.
Line: Lions by 7½. Total: 51½.
Records (overall/ATS): Buccaneers 1-0/1-0; Lions 1-0/1-0.
Outlook: Baker Mayfield continued his career renaissance with the Buccaneers in Week 1, throwing for 289 yards and four touchdowns for a 146.4 passer rating against the Commanders. Jared Goff is proven, but Lions leaned on David Montgomery in OT last week.
Pick: Lions 31, Buccaneers 27.
49ERS at VIKINGS
Time: Noon, CBS 2.
Line: 49ers by 5½. Total: 45½.
Records (overall/ATS): 49ers 1-0/1-0;
Vikings 1-0/1-0.
Outlook: Holdouts, injuries, misinformation . . . nothing seems to stop the 49ers’ juggernaut — except Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo and QB Patrick Mahomes. The Vikings do not have Steve Spagnuolo or Patrick Mahomes.
Pick: 49ers 30, Vikings 17.
SEAHAWKS at PATRIOTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Seahawks by 3½. Total: 38½.
Records (overall/ATS): Seahawks 1-0/0-0-1; Patriots 1-0/1-0.
Outlook: Bill Belichick was 22-29 without Tom Brady, but the Patriots and Jerod Mayo are 1-0 without Belichick after a stunning 16-10 road upset of the Bengals. Don’t discount the post-Belichick bump being a real thing.
Pick: Patriots 17, Seahawks 16.
BROWNS at JAGUARS
Time: Noon.
Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Browns 0-1/0-1; Jaguars 0-1/1-0.
Outlook: Jaguars are still waiting for Trevor Lawrence’s breakout season after the former No. 1 pick threw for 162 yards vs. the Dolphins. But the Browns and Deshaun Watson are a reminder that it could always be worse.
Pick: Jaguars 20, Browns 13.
COLTS at PACKERS
Time: Noon, Fox 32.
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 41.
Records (overall/ATS): Colts 0-1/1-0;
Packers 0-1/0-1.
Outlook: Malik Willis likely to start for the Packers with Jordan Love injured. Anthony Richardson averaged 11.2 ypa vs. Texans.
Pick: Packers 22, Colts 20.
GIANTS at COMMANDERS
Time: Noon.
Line: Commanders by 1½. Total: 43.
Records (overall/ATS): Giants 0-1/0-1; Commanders 0-1/0-1.
Outlook: Giants coach Brian Daboll’s seat only got hotter after a 28-6 loss to the Vikings at home last week. Next up: Jayden Daniels.
Pick: Commanders 19, Giants 16.
RAIDERS at RAVENS
Time: Noon.
Line: Ravens by 9. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Raiders 0-1/0-1; Ravens 0-1/0-1.
Outlook: Ravens dropping in class after losing to the Chiefs. Then again, Gardner Minshew beat them in Baltimore last year.
Pick: Ravens 23, Raiders 10.
SAINTS at COWBOYS
Time: Noon.
Line: Cowboys by 6. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Saints 1-0/1-0; Cowboys 1-0/1-0.
Outlook: The Cowboys were 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS at home in 2023 with an average margin of victory of 37-16 — until the playoffs.
Pick: Cowboys 34, Saints 20.
STEELERS at BRONCOS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Steelers by 2½. Total: 36½.
Records (overall/ATS): Steelers 1-0/1-0; Broncos 0-1/0-0-1.
Outlook: Justin Fields, who has played 100% of the Steelers’ snaps, had his highest rating of the season vs. the Broncos last year (132.7).
Pick: Steelers 17, Broncos 17 (OT).
FALCONS at EAGLES
Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN.
Line: Eagles by 6½. Total: 47.
Records (overall/ATS): Falcons 0-1/0-1; Eagles 1-0/1-0.
Outlook: Vic Fangio’s defense turned it up when it needed to vs. the Packers — allowing three points, 4.7 yards/play in the final 29:09.
Pick: Eagles 31, Falcons 17.