Voters trust former President Donald Trump more than Vice President Kamala Harris when it comes to foreign policy, according to a poll released on Monday.
The Cato Institute commissioned YouGov to poll 1,500 Americans across Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, three crucial swing states.
Most notably, the survey found that voters trust Trump more than Harris to handle foreign policy by four percent in each state.
Cato wrote:
They believe Trump is more likely to keep Americans out of foreign wars and conflicts (WI: 52%, PA: 51%, MI: 52%), to help end the war in Ukraine (WI: 51%, PA: 50%, MI: 54%), and make foreign policy decisions based on American interests first (WI: 51%, PA: 54%, MI: 56%).
The poll also found the race to be neck-and-neck between Trump and Harris in the three states. Trump beats Harris in Michigan 48 to 47 percent, they are tied at 47 percent in Pennsylvania, and Harris is beating Trump in Wisconsin 51 to 46 percent.
“With margins this close, public opinion on foreign policy could impact the election outcome,” Cato’s Emily Ekins explained. “Indeed, slim majorities of likely voters in these three swing states say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who disagrees with them on foreign policy (WI: 52%, PA: 50%, MI: 52%).”
The majority of voters across the swing states want the United States to reduce or stop aid to Ukraine, and the majority of these states’ voters believe that the war in Ukraine could lead to a broader war in Europe.
Pluralities of likely voters believe that the United States’ involvement in the Middle East has only made America’s national security worse. Eight in ten swing state voters believe that America can not fix the conflicts in the region even if the country provides more money, troops, and resources.
Cato wrote about the poll’s findings regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict:
Eight in 10 swing state voters say that the way Hamas carried out its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, was unacceptable. However, voters are divided about the way Israel has carried out its response. Eight in 10 swing state voters support an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
Seven in 10 believe that the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza is important to national security, and most believe the war could lead to a broader war in the Middle East (WI: 73%, PA: 77%, MI: 73%). If a broader war did break out, these voters would support sending military aid and equipment to Israel (WI: 51%, PA: 50%, MI: 44%) but not entering the war itself (WI: 53%, PA: 49%, MI: 48% opposed).
Majorities of swing state voters support using military force to combat drug cartels in Mexico.
Cato commissioned YouGov to poll 500 voters each in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from August 15 to 23, 2024. The margins of error for likely voters are ± 5.92 percent in Wisconsin, ± 5.93 percent in Pennsylvania, and ± 5.95 percent in Michigan at the 95 percent confidence interval.