Patriots
The Patriots aren’t projected to have a good season by oddsmakers in 2024, to say the least.
The Patriots’ 2024 season is about to kickoff. If oddsmakers are to be believed, it might be even worse than last season.
New England’s win total, Super Bowl, and division title odds are all the lowest in football entering the season. It’s certainly understandable considering that they’re coming off a 4-13 season and didn’t make any major acquisitions via free agency or trade.
Still, those odds give a good sense of how far the Patriots are from the rest of the league. There are also odds on how certain players on the Patriots will perform and their chances of winning the big awards this season.
So, on the eve of the season, let’s take a look at what oddsmakers are projecting for the 2024 Patriots, with odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
How oddsmakers expect the Patriots to perform
Win total: 4.5 (over -125/under +100)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +35000 (worst in NFL)
Odds to make playoffs: +900 (worst in NFL)/Odds to miss playoffs: -1800 (best in NFL)
Odds to win AFC: +12000 (tied for worst with Broncos)
Odds to win AFC East: +2500 (worst odds in division)
Odds to finish with worst record in NFL: +350 (best odds)
As you can likely tell oddsmakers expect the Patriots to have another wretched season. Their odds for nearly everything are among the worst in the NFL. Their projected win total of 4.5 wins is the lowest in the league on top of having the worst odds of winning the Super Bowl and making the playoffs.
The Patriots projected win total of 4.5 wins is certainly a far cry from the past. That projected win total is their lowest entering a season since 1991. The number that season was four, but the Patriots went 1-15 that year.
While New England’s projected win total is at 4.5, it actually isn’t favored to win a single game in the 2024 season on DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday. The closest game the Patriots are to being listed as a favorite is their Week 17 matchup at home against the Chargers, where they’re 2.5-point favorites.
The one area where the Patriots are favored is to have the worst record in the NFL. Their +350 odds of having the worst record in the NFL hold a 22.22 percent implied probability. The Panthers, who finished with the worst record last season, have the second-best odds to finish with the worst record at +550.
If there is a glimmer of hope, the over on the Patriots’ win total has been juiced up to -125 while the under is at +100. That suggests that sharp bettors are wagering on the Patriots to win more than 4.5 games in 2024. So, that’s something.
Jacoby Brissett odds
Odds to win MVP: +25000
Odds to win Comeback Player of the Year: +10000
Brissett is one of the very few starting quarterbacks in Week 1 to not have odds listed for projected passing yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. That’s likely because of the uncertainty over how long he’ll be the Patriots’ starting quarterback. Many presume that Drake Maye will take over at some point, which would make it a poor idea to make a wager on Brissett’s futures.
However, if Brissett is the Patriots’ starting quarterback for the entire season, it likely means he’s playing well enough to not lose the starting job. The veteran is reasonably a longshot for both MVP and Comeback Player of the Year, though.
Drake Maye odds
Odds to win MVP: +18000
Odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year: +2500 (seventh-best)
Odds to win Offensive Player of the Year: +30000
Odds to throw for at least 4,000 yards: +3500
Odds to throw for at least 4,500 yards: +6500
Similar to Brissett, Maye doesn’t have odds listed for projected passing yards, touchdowns, and interceptions.
Maye’s also a long shot to win MVP, but his odds are noticeably higher than Brissett. It could be a sign that oddsmakers expect Maye to take over at quarterback sooner rather than later.
Maye is also among the favorites to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, although Caleb Williams is the clear favorite to win the award at +135.
Rhamondre Stevenson odds
Rushing yards total: 775.5 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Rushing touchdowns total: 4.5 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Odds to win MVP: +50000
Odds to win Offensive Player of the Year: +15000
Odds to lead NFL in rushing yards: +5000
Odds to lead NFL in rushing touchdowns: +6000
Oddsmakers placed Steven’s projected stat lines a bit down after a quiet 2023 season that ended early due to an ankle injury. He rushed for 619 yards and four touchdowns in 12 games last season.
If Stevenson gets back to his 2022 form, he should clear those projected stat lines. He had 1,040 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns that season.
Christian Gonzalez odds
Interceptions total: 1.5
Odds to win Defensive Player of the Year: +10000
Gonzalez is the only Patriots defensive player who has odds listed for anything at DraftKings Sportsbook. He is a pretty big longshot to win Defensive Player of the Year with +10000 odds. But if he can perform the way he did in his very brief rookie stint, maybe he can become a dark horse candidate for the award.
Gonzalez had an interception and notably slowed down Tyreek Hill and Garrett Wilson before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 4 last season.
Other notable odds
Jerod Mayo to win Coach of the Year: +3000
Ja’Lynn Polk to win Offensive Rookie of the Year: +10000
Both Mayo and Polk are also listed as longshots to win prestigious awards. Mayo’s odds to win Coach of the Year are tied for the 19th-best. While he has long odds, Mayo could have the narrative in his favor to win the award. Most winners for Coach of the Year are typically head coaches from overperforming teams who led their team to the postseason after missing in the previous year.
As for Polk, his chances of winning Offensive Rookie of the Year are slimmer. It doesn’t help that Maye is also competing for the award, so the two would be competing for votes if they were to each have strong seasons.
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