BEST BET
RAIDERS at CHARGERS
Time: 3:05 p.m., CBS 2.
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 40.
2023 records (overall/ATS): Raiders 8-9/10-5-2; Chargers 5-12/5-11-1.
The Bears were 7-2 in 2012 when they faced Jim Harbaugh’s 6-2-1 49ers in a marquee matchup of backup quarterbacks — Jason Campbell vs. Colin Kaepernick — after Bears starter Jay Cutler and 49ers starter Alex Smith had each suffered a concussion the previous week.
Campbell had the edge in experience — 75 NFL starts to zero for Kaepernick. But Kaepernick had the trump card — Jim Harbaugh, whose fine touch with quarterbacks from Rich Gannon to Josh Johnson to Andrew Luck to Smith already was well established.
Sure enough, the “Monday Night Football” matchup at Candlestick Park was a blowout. Campbell never had a chance against a vicious 49ers defense. He was sacked six times and threw for just 106 yards, with a 52.7 passer rating.
Kaepernick was magnificent. Throwing darts from the start, he completed nine of his first 10 passes for 158 yards as the 49ers took a 17-0 lead early in the second quarter and finished with a 133.7 passer rating (16-for-23, 243 yards, two touchdowns) in a 32-7 rout.
The rest is history. Kaepernick led the 49ers to the Super Bowl that season and the NFC Championship Game in 2013 before his career was derailed on the field and off — notably after Harbaugh left for Michigan.
Harbaugh, the former Bears quarterback, has since added J.J. McCarthy — a national- championship-winning quarterback at Michigan and the 10th overall pick of the 2024 draft by the Vikings — to his résumé. Now Harbaugh is back in the NFL with the Chargers — and the most ready-made QB he has ever had in Justin Herbert.
That’s a dangerous combination. Herbert is a favorite of scouts and film-watchers, chiseled by the football gods at 6-6, 236 pounds, wonderfully skilled and technically proficient. He has the look of a winner and puts up big numbers — 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns in 2021; 4,739 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2022. But he has yet to crack the top 10 in passer rating (12th, 11th, 12th and 12th) and is only 30-31 in games he has started and finished. There’s always something.
That’s where Harbaugh can make a difference. Smith was a disappointing No. 1 overall pick (19-31, 72.1) until Harbaugh got his hands on him — 19-5-1 with a 95.1 rating in 2011-12 before Kaepernick happened. With even more for Harbaugh to work with, this could be Herbert’s breakout season.
Pick: Chargers 35, Raiders 17.
TOP PLAYS
TITANS at BEARS
Time: Noon, Fox 32.
Line: Bears by 4.
Total: 45.
2023 records (overall/ATS): Titans 6-11/7-9-1; Bears 7-10/8-7-2
Outlook: Bears finished strong last season — 5-3, with the fewest points allowed in the NFL in that span. Their most significant changes are considered upgrades with a good chance of immediate payoffs — Caleb Williams for Justin Fields and OC Shane Waldron for Luke Getsy. Titans aren’t quite in that boat with Brian Callahan and a new staff.
Pick: Bears 23, Titans 17.
JAGUARS at DOLPHINS
Time: Noon.
Line: Dolphins by 3½.
Total: 49.
2023 records (overall/ATS): Jaguars 9-8/9-8; Dolphins 11-7/10-8.
Outlook: Dolphins have made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons under Mike McDaniel, but they’re shaky as an up-and-coming challenger to the Chiefs, picking on non-playoff teams. Defenses usually are not as good when Vic Fangio leaves. Jaguars are motivated to atone for costly late-season slump (1-5).
Pick: Jaguars 26, Dolphins 23.
BRONCOS at SEAHAWKS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: Seahawks by 6.
Total: 42.
2023 records (overall/ATS): Broncos 8-9/6-10-1; Seahawks 9-8/7-8-2.
Outlook: Seahawks are favored but could be due for a step back on both sides of the ball with Mike Macdonald replacing Pete Carroll and Ryan Grubb, in his first NFL job, replacing Shane Waldron. Broncos improved under Sean Payton after a 1-5 start. Rookie Bo Nix is inexperienced but in good hands with Payton.
Pick: Broncos 17, Seahawks 16.
OTHER GAMES
PACKERS at EAGLES
Time: 7:15 p.m. Friday in Sao Paulo, Peacock.
Line: Eagles by 2. Total: 49.
2023 records (overall/ATS): Packers 10-9/11-8; Eagles 11-7/6-9-3.
Outlook: Eagles fell apart in the second half last season, losing 6 of 7 after a 10-1 start. Their defense should get the Vic Fangio bump after dropping from eighth to 30th in scoring last season under Sean Desai, but sometimes that takes a little time.
Pick: Eagles 27, Packers 24.
VIKINGS at GIANTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Vikings by 1½. Total: 41.
2023 records (overall/ATS): Vikings 7-10/7-7-3; Giants 6-11/8-8-1.
Outlook: Vikings are turning to Sam Darnold after rookie J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending torn meniscus. Giants might have the revenge factor after a playoff victory over the Vikes in 2022 goaded them into signing Daniel Jones to a four-year, $160 million contract.
Pick: Giants 20, Vikings 19.
PANTHERS at SAINTS
Time: Noon
Line: Saints by 4. Total: 41½.
2023 records (overall/ATS): Panthers 2-15/4-11-2; Saints 9-8/6-10-1.
Outlook: Panthers couldn’t have looked more hapless last year with Bryce Young struggling, C.J. Stroud thriving and the Bears getting their No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Young is due for an improved second season.
Pick: Panthers 30, Saints 24.
STEELERS at FALCONS
Time: Noon.
Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 42.
2023 records (overall/ATS): Steelers 10-8/10-8; Falcons 7-10/5-12.
Outlook: It seems like only a matter of time before Justin Fields replaces rapidly aging Russell Wilson at QB, but this is a good spot for Wilson. Kirk Cousins likely to start slowly in his comeback from an Achilles injury.
Pick: Steelers 27, Falcons 20.
PATRIOTS at BENGALS
Time: Noon.
Line: Bengals by 8. Total: 41.
2023 records (overall/ATS): Patriots 4-13/6-11; Bengals 9-8/7-8-2.
Outlook: Joe Burrow figures to start slowly in his first game back from a wrist injury, and Ja’Marr Chase’s status is in question after a holdout. But the Patriots are starting over with Jerod Mayo replacing Bill Belichick.
Pick: Bengals 21, Patriots 7.
CARDINALS at BILLS
Time: Noon.
Line: Bills by 6½. Total: 48.
2023 records (overall/ATS): Cardinals 4-13/9-7-1; Bills 12-7/8-10-1.
Outlook: Cardinals are a team to watch with Kyler Murray a year removed from injury and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr.
Pick: Bills 27, Cardinals 23.
TEXANS at COLTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Texans by 3. Total: 48½.
2023 records (overall/ATS): Texans 11-8/10-9; Colts 9-8/9-8.
Outlook: Texans won’t sneak up on anybody this year. Colts are primed to avenge a Week 18 loss that kept them out of the playoffs.
Pick: Texans 23, Colts 22.
COMMANDERS at BUCCANEERS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Buccaneers by 3½. Total: 43½.
2023 records (overall/ATS): Commanders 4-13/6-10-1; Buccaneers 10-9/12-7.
Outlook: Jayden Daniels is an intriguing rookie who could be a big hit, but probably not against the Bucs’ defense in Week 1
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Commanders 16.
COWBOYS at BROWNS
Time: 3:25 p.m., Fox 32.
Line: Browns by 2½. Total: 41.
2023 records (overall/ATS): Cowboys 12-6/10-8; Browns 11-7/11-7.
Outlook: Deshaun Watson is an X-factor in his return from injury, but he’s at the point where you have to see it to believe it.
Pick: Cowboys 20, Browns 17.
RAMS at LIONS
Time: 7:20 p.m., NBC 5.
Line: Lions by 3½. Total: 51.
2023 records (overall/ATS): Rams 10-8/11-6-1; Lions 14-6/14-6.
Outlook: Dan Campbell will have the Lions primed for this one after botching a chance to reach the Super Bowl last season.
Pick: Lions 34, Rams 30.
JETS at 49ERS
Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ABC 7, ESPN.
Line: 49ers by 4½. Total: 44.
2023 records (overall/ATS): Jets 7-10/6-10-1; 49ers 14-6/9-11.
Outlook: Aaron Rodgers has something to prove in his return from an Achilles injury. Niners might start slowly after preseason holdouts of Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk.
Pick: 49ers 27, Jets 24.