NFL Thursday/Friday Week 1 Bettors Guide: Can Ravens flip the script, NFL heads to Brazil

RAVENS at CHIEFS

Thursday, 8:20 p.m., Chiefs by 3, 46 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: History tells us the Ravens are fast starters and the Chiefs can be sluggish. Memory tells us that everything went right for the Chiefs in their road win over the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game with turnovers playing a big role. Baltimore had the better roster, K.C. had the playoff know-how. Andy Reid out-coached John Harbaugh. But Harbaugh is too sharp to fall into the same trap again.

Incredibly, Ravens backs had just five carries in the entire title game as the Ravens played into K.C.’s hands. With that game plan flushed and Derrick Henry in the backfield, we’ll see a more balanced approach. Henry has averaged 111.8 yards with six TDs in four starts against the Chiefs’ middle-of-the-pack run defense and his constant threat will open things up for Lamar Jackson. Rashee Rice should take another step for the Chiefs and rookie Xavier Worthy has shown the speed to get behind the defense for Patrick Mahomes. That will allow Reid to open the downfield pages of the playbook again. The Ravens secondary, however, isn’t easy pickings. They are as deep and talented as any in the league.

There are concerns Baltimore-wise. Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is now running the show in Seattle so there are some adjustments that will have to be made. The Ravens have also lost three starters from their offensive line. Still, it’s hard to see the Ravens taking any big step backwards considering the culture Harbaugh has established.

The Ravens play well away from the Charm City, with a 5-0 record in their last five road contests. Can the Chiefs lose two straight after winning Super Bowls? As for the total, these may be the two best QBs in the NFL, but these were also two of the best defensive units in the NFL a year ago, both allowing under 17 ppg. Expect both teams to feel each other out and for Harbaugh to lean on his new toy in the backfield, employing a “keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands” approach.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the under.

PACKERS vs. EAGLES in SAO PAULO

Friday, 8:15 p.m., Eagles by 3, 48 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: When looking at how the teams line up, there’s one huge mismatch: Jordan Love and his deep receiving corps against the Eagles’ revamped secondary. Love played near an elite level over the final eight games of the 2023 season, with a 70.3% completion rate, 2,150 yards and 20 touchdowns against only one interception. While he was getting hot, the Eagles were freezing up, falling apart after a 10-1 start. Much of that centered around a continually torched defensive backfield. They’ve made changes, including the position coach, re-signing SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson and drafting Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, but it’s going to take some time for the unit to gel. Vic Fangio, Philly’s new old defensive coordinator, runs a complicated scheme and this is a tough opening day assignment. What’s more, Devin White, the LB brought in to shore up the Eagles’ run defense, will miss the game with an ankle injury as they face new-Packer RB Josh Jacobs. If the Eagles’ DL does not dominate up front, it will be a long night.

The Eagles, with nine new starters on the field, will be somewhat of a mystery. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore (Chargers, Cowboys) has been charged with making the offense less predictable. He certainly has weapons at his disposal, including Saquon Barkley, who had two memorable games against the Packers when he was a Giant. But the offensive line could be another story. Green Bay’s new defensive coordinator, Jeff Hafley, figures to blitz Hurts from the opening series so communication up front will be critical. Jason Kelce was the key to that communication from his center position and will not be easily replaced.

All things considered, both offenses have advantages over the defenses. Neither will be playing it safe. It shapes up as a back and forth, high-scoring contest. Go over.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Packers and the over.

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