With the holiday weekend behind us, it is time to lock back in to our MLB player prop picks. Yesterday did not go our way, as we did not get any of these home run picks to cash, but today’s MLB betting slate features a lot of home run pitchers to target, so let’s hope for better luck with these.
Gunnar Henderson Home Run (+525) BetMGM
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles, 6:35 p.m. ET
For our first play, we are rocking with Henderson, who has an awesome matchup and is showing signs that he is back from a mini-slump, as he has been hot at the plate recently.
The pitcher is Nick Nastrini of the White Sox, who has only pitched 30 innings but has gotten rocked in those innings, allowing a HR/9 of 2.05, barrel rate of 12.6% and 22 degree launch angle, all of which are horrible numbers.
While Nastrini has given up fewer home runs to lefties, he also allows a barrel rate of 18% against lefties, so the lack of homers is more due to luck than anything. The guess here is that a home run regression against LHH is on the way for Nastrini.
As for Henderson, as mentioned earlier, he has been hitting the ball well at the plate. Not only did Henderson hit a home run yesterday on the hardest hit ball of the game (108.2 mph off the bat), but he had three HardHits total, including a sacrifice fly that was 103.2 mph off the bat.
He’s back.
Lawrence Butler Home Run (+525) BetMGM
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET
We went with Butler yesterday, and that might have been the worst beat we will have on the year with these home run picks, as he had two absolutely annihilated baseballs that somehow did not leave the stadium. He had a 100.1 mph flyout that traveled 365 feet, and another 103.4 mph double that traveled 384 feet.
So, even though he did not hit one yesterday, he had a great game overall, and he has also been the best power hitter in the baseball over the past week by pretty much any metric.
He leads MLB with 14 HardHit line-drive + fly-balls (nobody else even has 13, and the three batters closest to him have12), and he also leads MLB in balls launched (100-plus mph off the bat, 20-40 degree launch angle) with nine total, and the next-closest batters have six. He also leads MLB in barrels in the last seven days with 10, and the next-closest batters have seven.
He is essentially an auto-bet until he stops hitting rockets, and he has a great pitching matchup against Luis Castillo of the Mariners, who loves giving up home runs to lefties.
He has allowed seven home runs to lefties in the last two months, with a HR/9 of 2.40, an ISO rate allowed of .252, and a HardHit rate of 51%, all horrible numbers.
Butler goes yard tonight.
Jose Tena Home Run (+870) FanDuel
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET
This one is definitely a deeper cut, but Tena should not be priced at +870 odds, so we will gladly take advantage of that. He has nine Hard Hit line-drive + fly-balls over the past seven days. That is tied with a bunch of batters for the fourth-most in MLB, with four balls launched, which is also tied for the fourth-most in that timeframe.
Overall, in the past seven days alone against right-handed pitching, Tena has a 30% barrel rate and a 66.67% HardHit rate, and he is going up against a horrible RHP today in Max Meyer of the Marlins.
Meyer has allowed a 10% barrel rate and 53.45% HardHit rate in the last two months against lefties, and he has allowed four home runs in 69 at-bats, giving him a HR/9 of 2.12, which is also very bad. His pitch-mix entirely consists of 4-seam fastballs (40% of the time), sliders (33%) and changeups (27%), and these are three pitches that Tena has crushed on the year and recently.
He has not played the whole season, so it is a limited sample size, but in 26 total at-bats he has a 19% barrel rate and 61% HardHit rate. Here are the recent outcomes when he has seen one of these three pitches:
- 94.7 mph off the bat (the only non-HardHit)
- 100.7 mph
- 103.6 mph that traveled 400 feet
- 95.1 mph flyout that traveled 366 feet
- 102.9 mph off the bat
- 103 mph, 405-foot home run
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