By some important measures — shootings and murders — New York is getting safer. Homicides are down 11% year to date, and shooting incidents by about the same percentage. The total count of seven major crimes (murder, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary, grand larceny and grand larceny auto) is down about 2% compared to this time last year.
All that is to the credit of Mayor Adams and the NYPD he oversees.
But not all trends are moving in the right direction on the public safety front.
On Wednesday, state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli reported that hate crimes went up 12.7% in 2023 alone statewide compared to the year prior. In New York City, the 2023 count (669) was well above the 2022 count (594), which was substantially above the 2021 count (514), which was way above the 2020 count (272).
Nor are these crimes equal opportunity. Anti-Jewish bias incidents make up 44% of the total; 17% were anti-Black, and another sizable chunk were anti-gay.
It is scary indeed that the city that’s home to more Jews than any other outside of Israel — a place where Jews have come for centuries seeking opportunity and cultural comfort and religious freedom — is becoming home to more and more reported antisemitism, which of course is a small fraction of the actual antisemitism out there.
Some of this is absolutely due to the Gaza war that began with the Hamas Oct. 7 onslaught against Israel, undoubtedly warming the hearts of the terrorists that Jews thousands of miles from the Mideast are also being victimized.
Would more enforcement curb the surge? More education? Clearer and more consistent messages from political and community leaders? Swifter and surer punishment of offenders once they’re caught. Probably all of the above, though we won’t know until we try.
Two other wrong-way criminal justice trends were highlighted in Vital City, the urban policy journal. In an August report they looked carefully at the numbers and shined a light on a few things that get precious little attention.
First, felony assaults, one of the most brutal types of violence, are going up year after year, from 234 in 2020 to 338 in 2023 (and 5% higher so far this year). These are physical injuries severe enough to pose a serious risk of death or long-term disability. As the authors point out, “Given the decrease in shootings, the ongoing rise in felony assaults is a puzzle” — one that must be solved.
Second, they point out that the total number of reported criminal offenses, which is to say felonies, misdemeanors and relatively minor violations, is on the rise in the city. After hitting a low of 418,000 in 2020, they went up to 537,000 in 2022, hit 561,000 last year and are rising slightly again this year.
“Small crimes” aren’t as serious as big ones, but they happen much more frequently, and to the victims, they’re nevertheless significant and often life-changing ruptures. The fact that they’re up to levels not seen since 2015 demands significant attention.
None of this changes the fact that New York is much safer than other big cities, and much safer than it was 20 or 30 years ago, and getting safer in many ways than it became soon after COVID hit. But even with those caveats, rising risk and fear must be taken seriously — and combated intelligently.