Bruins
” I understand the cap is going up and where it will be in years.”
As the Bruins and Jeremy Swayman continue to try and bridge the gap in contract negotiations, one thing has become apparent.
The 25-year-old goalie is well aware of his value, and he’s not necessarily looking to take a hometown discount.
The pay bump that Swayman is expected to net on his deal remains the murkiest part of his eventual deal with the Bruins. Swayman is set to secure a nice bump from the $3.475 million he commanded last season — but just how much is he looking for?
While both Swayman and Boston’s top brass have largely said all of the right things this summer as the respective parties hammer away at a contract, Swayman’s approach in these negotiations might center around more than just his rising stock after a dominant playoff run.
Because based on his latest comments on the “Shut Up Marc Podcast,” Swayman’s focus on the state of a surging cap in the NHL and a goalie market on the upswing could weigh heavily on just what type of payout he’s looking for moving forward.
When asked about how he’s negotiating through what should be the first long-term contract of his pro career, Swayman was candid about how his mindset has shifted since going through a contentious arbitration process with Boston last summer.
“If you were to ask me that same question a year ago, I would answer truthfully,” Swayman told host Marc Lewis. ” And I would say, ‘It’s scary. It’s a lot of resentment towards people that want you to succeed.’ And when you’re not being compensated for your endless efforts and doing what you do best, it’s a nerve-wracking feeling because it’s your family that you’re fighting for.
“The answer I’m gonna give you this year is that I’ve educated myself and I understand the business side of it all. It’s given me a complete new mindset of understanding the business and how to react to it. I understand the cap is going up and where it will be in years. I understand my comparables and how I can’t ruin the goalie market for guys that are gonna be in my shoes down the line.”
When factoring in a recent rumor shared by WEEI’s Rich Keefe that Swayman is looking to net $10 million per year on his new contract, one has to wonder if Swayman and his camp are fully banking on a growing cap ceiling — and his own high ceiling — in hopes of being one of the highest paid goalies in the league.
Currently, there are only four active goalies making over $6.4 million in an annual cap hit this upcoming season, with the only active netminder worth $10 million being Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky.
After that, Tampa’s Andrei Vasilevskiy sits at $9.5 million, Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck is at $8.5 million, and the Islanders’ Ilya Sorokin at $8.25 million.
Three of those four goalies have at least one Vezina Trophy on their resume, to go along with three Stanley Cup titles.
Swayman’s comments about not ruining the goalie market does hold value, with his new deal potentially setting the floor for future paydays for other top young goalies in the league like the Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin and Jake Oettinger.
With the NHL’s players completely paying off the escrow debt incurred during the COVID-impacted 2019-20 season, the league’s cap ceiling is also poised to surge beyond the $4.5 million increase announced for the 2024-25 season.
Longtime NHL agent Allan Walsh, co-head of Octagon Hockey, noted in an interview with Sportico that the league’s salary cap could jump from $88 million in 2024-25 to $101 million in by the 2027-28 season.
With more fiscal flexibility on the horizon, No. 1 goalies could easily command $9-10 million per season — while already hefty deals like David Pastrnak’s ($11.25 million AAV) should continue to age well over time.
But even if Swayman is potentially projecting a double-digit payday being the norm a few years down the road, the Bruins may not necessarily be ready to meet that demand at this stage of his promising NHL career.
Swayman’s stock is at an all-time high this offseason, due in large part to his performance during Boston’s latest postseason run. He sported a .933 save percentage over 12 games with the Bruins against both Toronto and Florida.
His 13.3 goals saved above expected led all goalies during the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs (per MoneyPuck), even though he only appeared in two total rounds.
Still, a strong end to the 2023-24 season doesn’t mean that the Bruins are ready and willing to pay him upwards of $10 million per year — even if he has more room to grow as a No. 1 goalie in the NHL ranks.
While Swayman’s development as one of the most promising goalies in the league has played a key role in Boston’s sterling regular-season record over the last few seasons, the Bruins understandably might be hesitant to hand out such a sizable pay day to a goalie set to take the reins as an unquestioned No. 1 goalie for the first time in his NHL career.
The stage is set for Swayman to take the lion’s share of reps in net this season following the trade of Linus Ullmark in June. But questions remain about his workload, considering that his career-high in games played is just 44 — set last season.
Even with a sterling playoff run, Swayman’s career-best finish in the voting for the Vezina Trophy is seventh overall. Sorokin — a potential comparable with his $8.25 million payout — appeared in 56 games last season and was a finalist for the Vezina.
The Bruins might have plenty of faith in Swayman and the hopes that his playoff performance is a sign of things to come. But that also doesn’t necessarily mean the Bruins are willing to pay $9-10 million per season based solely on future projections.
“Jeremy’s only played 44 games in a regular season, which is still significant,” Bruins president Cam Neely acknowledged on WZLX’s “The Rich Shertenlieb Show” last week. “But it’s not, it’s not 60 or 65 [games]. And Linus, you know, those two certainly helped us have the records we did the last couple years. They’re both great goaltenders.
“Jeremy, he’s a guy that’s so focused and so determined and he’s got a lot of confidence in himself. And he’s obviously [at] the age, so we figured that we would ride with Jeremy.”
The Bruins might be excited about rolling with Swayman for the foreseeable future, especially with his ceiling nowhere close to being reached at this stage of his career.
But a long-term deal worth between $7.5-8.5 million per year might be a more agreeable asking price between all parties.
Even with the question marks the Bruins might have about Swayman’s ability to handle the strain of a No. 1 job, it’s a sizable payout that resets the floor for the goalie market, gives a 25-year-old goalie a significant pay raise, and also has the chance of aging well over time if Swayman continues to thrive with more reps.
For all of the posturing and speculation that understandably comes with contract negotiations, one thing has remained clear throughout this process — Swayman wants his ascension as one of the NHL’s top goalies to come while donning a black-and-gold sweater.
“I think 10-year-old Jeremy Swayman didn’t think in a million years that he’d be in this position he’s in and the city he’s in, and the amount of gratitude that I have to be in this situation completely covers up the negative side of everything,” Swayman told Lewis. “I couldn’t be happier to be in this situation. At the end of the day, I’m stopping pucks for the Boston Bruins.”
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