Americans Favor ‘America First’ Trade, Energy, and Immigration Policies
Tariffs and deportation are popular policies.
Recent polling from YouGov for the Economist magazine shows that a majority of Americans support deporting or arresting illegal immigrants. Thirty-seven percent strongly support deportation or arrest, and another 16 percent somewhat support these policies.
Just over a third of Americans—35 percent—say they oppose mass deportation. Fourteen percent somewhat oppose and 23 percent strongly oppose.
Donald Trump has promised that he would deport many illegal immigrants, while Kamala Harris and her fellow Democratic officials have criticized deportation proposals. Deportation, however, is supported by Americans across the income spectrum—and is especially popular among working and middle-class Americans.
Among Americans with household incomes under $50,000, 53 percent support deportation and 32 percent oppose. In households with between $50,000 and $100,000 of annual income, support rises to 58 percent and opposition comes in at 34 percent. In wealthier households, 48 percent support deportation and 42 percent oppose.
Although opponents often claim deportation would be racist or that support for deportation is rooted in racism, the polling undercuts those arguments. Black voters are almost as likely to support deportation as oppose it, with 40 percent supporting and 41 percent opposing. The same with Hispanic voters, where 38 percent support and 39 percent oppose. Among white voters, 59 percent support and 31 percent oppose.
Tariffs Are Popular—Especially Among Conservatives
Although Kamala Harris claimed, without evidence, that the 10 percent tariffs floated by Trump would be a tax on America’s middle class, the idea has broad support among Americans. The Economist poll found that 42 percent of registered voters support the tariffs and just 31 percent oppose.
Tariffs are a winning issue across racial and ethnic groups. White voters support tariffs by 45 percent over 31 percent opposed. Black voters support comes in at 40 percent and opposition at 23 percent. Thirty-eight percent of Hispanic voters say they support tariffs, versus 31 percent who are opposed.
The poll confirms that the Republican Party has returned to its roots as the pro-tariff party in the U.S., and the Democrats have moved away from supporting tariffs. Sixty-one percent of Republicans support an across the board 10 percent tariff, while just 22 percent oppose it. Among Democrats, just 28 percent support the tariffs, and 44 percent oppose it. A plurality of independents support the tariff, with 39 percent for it and 26 percent opposed.
The conservative movement has definitely moved away from what was once a hardcore stance against tariffs. The poll shows that 63 percent of conservatives support tariffs, including 34 percent who say they strongly support tariffs. Only a rump of 19 percent oppose tariffs.
Tariffs are also popular with self-described moderates, with 41 percent supporting and 31 percent opposing. Among liberals, however, support for tariffs is weak. Just 24 percent support the proposed tariff and 50 percent oppose it.
A few years ago, Matthew Klein and Michael Pettis published a book titled Trade Wars Are Class Wars. There’s definitely a bit of class war when it comes to tariffs. Among voters with incomes under $50,000, 44 percent support the tariff, and 26 percent oppose. Among voters with incomes between $50,000 and $100,000, 45 percent support and 31 percent oppose. But among wealthier voters, there’s a closer division, with 40 percent supporting and 43 percent opposing.
Drill, Baby, Drill
A plurality of Americans also say they support measures to ease regulation to allow more drilling on federal land. The Economist poll found that 46 percent of voters support more drilling and 33 percent oppose.
Interestingly, the popularity of drilling crosses class lines, with its strongest support among the middle income group. Among those with incomes under $50,000, 42 percent support and 33 percent oppose. Between $50,000 and $100,000, 53 percent support and 32 percent oppose. Above $100,000, 47 percent support and 36 percent oppose.
Although younger people are often depicted as being monolithically opposed to fossil fuels, the poll shows those aged 18 to 29 are evenly divided on the question of drilling on federal lands, with 35 percent in favor and 35 percent opposed. Voters aged 30 to 44—most millennials—are most opposed, with 37 percent supporting and 40 percent opposing. Among Gen Xers 45-64, 52 percent support and 28 percent oppose. Fifty-nine percent of older Americans support more drilling, versus 30 percent who oppose.
A Powerful Coalition for Economic Nationalist Policies
What the survey shows is that there’s an electorally powerful coalition for American first economic policies from border security and deportation, to tariffs and trade, to energy abundance and independence. A presidential contest focused on these policies is likely to benefit Trump and the Republican Party.