AUSTIN (KXAN) — Central Texas just finished its longest triple-digit stretch of the year. From Aug. 12-23 we had highs at Austin’s Camp Mabry reach 100º or hotter.
That 12-day stretch was nothing compared to the 45-day run we had in 2023, but it still made for some record-breaking heat at times.
Now, we’re forecasting a cooler stretch of 90s for at least the next week. Does this mean we’re done with triple digits in Austin this year?
When is our ‘normal’ last triple-digit day?
Over the 30-year period from 1991-2020, our average final triple-digit day of the year happens near Aug. 30. Currently we’re not forecasting any highs near 100 through early September… beyond the average final triple-digit day.
Our first triple-digit day of 2024 came a week earlier than normal on June 27 (normal is July 4).
We’ve had 30 triple-digit days compared to an average of 29. Far fewer than the 80 triple-digit days we had last year.
Recent final triple-digit days of the year
If recent history is anything to go by, we may still have some triple digits ahead of us.
Four out of the last five years have seen triple-digit heat continue into September. Three out of the last five had triple digits even into the second half of September!
Latest ever triple digits?
It may not bring you much joy to know that we’ve had triple digits continue into October in Austin before. This has only happened in two years, 1938 and 1923.
What about this year?
It’s a tad too early to lock in a guarantee that triple digits are over for 2024, but the odds seem to be tilted in our favor.
Our long-term computer models keep highs in the 90s in Austin through the second week of September. In addition, while we do see the eventual redevelopment of high pressure to our west early next month, it doesn’t get nearly as strong as it was last week. Our ongoing wet pattern should add more moisture to the soil to help keep any brief spikes in heat to a minimum.
Typically we only see three triple-digit days a year in September, and most of those come during the first half of the month. Meanwhile, we’re losing ~1.5 minutes of daylight per day, the sun is getting lower in the sky, and our typical hottest time of the year gets farther in the rearview mirror.
Perhaps our best chance for triple digits to return would be if we were to see a late-day cold front approach from the north, providing compressional heating to boost temperatures prior to its arrival higher than we currently expect. That, or a down-sloping wind from the west that would also give temperatures a higher maximum than we currently are forecasting for the next two weeks.
So far we’re not seeing those two scenarios in the near term.