LAS VEGAS — Over the last two seasons, South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews watched more college football cash pour into his shop than NFL cash in September, October and November.
“And I think it’ll be even bigger this year,” he says. “I mean, there are big games every week — games you never thought you’d see. Just incredible.”
Pro football will dominate in December and into the playoffs. This time around, though, the college game will feature exotic matchups and funky-fresh rivalries. To detail those, Andrews scans his computer screen.
“Tennessee-Oklahoma, USC-Michigan, Wis-consin-USC, Florida State-SMU,” he says. “I think SMU will be pretty good, too, by the way.”
He continues, listing UCLA-LSU, Georgia-Alabama, Michigan-Washington, UCLA-Penn State, Ohio State-Oregon, Texas-Oklahoma, Georgia-Texas, Oregon-Michigan, Washington-Penn State, etc.
“God, looking through this, it’s unbelievable,” Andrews says. “For years, you could look at the schedule and say, ‘This is a [rotten] schedule this week.’ I don’t think that’ll be the case at all this year.”
Andrews does not care for NILs or the transfer portal or realignments, and neither do I. But as Miles Davis trumpeted: So what? Finally, we have an extended playoff system of 12 teams.
The bottom line?
“It’s great for business,” Andrews says. “It really is.”
Three to go 12-0?
The Gold Sheet’s stellar preseason publication projects the lines of every game of the season, and it has three teams favored in all 12 of their tilts. Three of the likeliest squads to go 12-0? Quick, pick the trio.
If you guessed Georgia and Oregon, you’re good. The third? Given three tries, Andrews whiffs. It’s Kansas State. I nabbed a 75-1 title ticket on the Wildcats.
As Texas bettor Paul Stone advised, I bought a 60-1 position on Utah. Should the Utes get a first-round playoff bye and then host a postseason game, I’m in a sweet hedging spot. Same, too, with Kansas State.
Minimizing juice
Asked for an under-the-radar squad that might surprise many, Andrews answers promptly, “Many wise guys like Indiana.”
That includes Southern California punter Tommy Lorenzo, who bought a -140 position on the Hoosiers to win more than 5.5 games, with a caveat.
New Indiana boss Curt Cignetti went 19-4 (including 15-8 against the number) at James Madison over the last two seasons. Indiana went 9-27 in its final three seasons under Tom Allen.
“Cignetti is a winner and had James Madison as a top-15 NCAA passing offense last year,” Lorenzo says. “Kurtis Rourke is a great transfer ‘get’ from Ohio; a step up for him from the MAC to the Big Ten.”
In 36 games for the Bobcats, the 6-3, 210-pound quarterback threw for 7,651 yards, 50 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.
Lorenzo favors the schedule: Florida International, Western Illinois, Charlotte, Maryland, Nebraska and Purdue at home, at UCLA and Northwestern.
He keenly offset that -140 price by tying it to an NFL season wager of -260. He has discussed the maneuver on his stellar “Cover the Weekend” podcast. Those two triumphs would more than double his investment.
“I eliminated the -140 and made the bet +137,” Lorenzo says. “Added risk, I know, but I thought it was acceptable to get away from that -140 figure. Nothing is guaranteed, but it’s a high-percentage way to get the juice down.”
Numbers, not names
The game that has attracted the most attention at the South Point since it released its Games of the Year and Weeks 0 and 1 in mid-July is surprising. It isn’t Ohio State at Oregon (Oct. 12) or Georgia at Alabama (Sept. 28). It’s Washington State at Washington on Sept. 14. No longer a conference affair, the Apple Cup opened Huskies -13 but has been shaved to 9. (Odds subject to change.)
“A lot of play,” Andrews says. “It probably isn’t among the games you’re thinking [with the most movement]. It’s all numbers, these guys playing numbers. They don’t give a [crap] about the name of the team.”
Diggin’ Dawgs
Paul Stone is a numbers ace. He has made 50-ish wagers since January, and most are typical $2,000 house limits.
His single favorite position? Georgia -2 at Texas on Oct. 19. He isn’t down on the Longhorns, he says, but they’ll be coming off the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma in Dallas.
Stone expects the Dawgs to be razor sharp for the Horns, especially if Georgia stumbles at Alabama on Sept. 28.
With such an early-conference defeat, he says, “I would like my position in the Texas game even more. The Bulldogs would be even more likely to deliver a supreme effort.”
Orange crush
At the Westgate SuperBook, executive vice president Jay Kornegay reports his largest early mover is Syracuse, having moved from -14 to -17.5 against Ohio on Saturday afternoon.
The games that have had 2.5-point shifts are Stanford (+10.5 to +8) on Friday night at home against TCU; Boise State (-10 to -12.5) at Georgia Southern, and Texas A&M (Pick to -2.5) hosting Notre Dame, both on Saturday.
Over easy?
Backing multiple trends, Saturday’s early Virginia Tech-at-Vanderbilt matchup has experienced the greatest totals shift, from 47.5 to 53, at the South Point. In 2023, nine of 13 Hokies games cleared their total, which was top 15 in the nation.
A year ago, six Vandy home games averaged a fraction below 60 points. Five of those six finished over. And in the last two years, nine of 12 Vandy home games have gone over, a top-five national rate.
Irish are … in
The Gold Sheet has Notre Dame favored in 11 of its 12 games, and its consensus season-win total around Vegas is 10, a slight over price.
“Money showed this morning against” the Irish, vs. Texas A&M, Andrews says of Saturday night’s marquee game on ABC. “But I’ve got the Irish win total at 10, making them 10-2 and in the playoffs.
“They don’t get a [league] championship game, so they can’t have a top-four seed. However, they kind of get a bye the week before, without that title game.”
Miscellany
Notre Dame and Penn State (both 25-13-1, 65.4%), and Kansas State (25-13-2, 65%), have been three-year spread titans.
Track over in Northern Illinois games, too, since Huskies tilts have sailed over at a top-15 national 59% clip, at 23-16.
(NIU, by the way, plays Notre Dame for the first time this season, Sept. 7 in South Bend. The Gold Sheet lines it Notre Dame -28.)
Kirk Ferentz, about to coach his 27th season at Iowa, has a lifetime ATS record of 55.3% (169-136-7), which boosts to 58.3% (31-22-1) as an away favorite.
The Hawkeyes, however, are limbo kings, since 29 of their last 41 games (70.7%) have finished below their totals. Ball State (26-11, 70.3%) might battle Iowa for the limbo crown.
Totals in Hawkeyes games sunk below 30 several times last season.
“They’re playing Ohio State this year, and I think I got the number at about 23,” Andrews says with a grin. “They’re hard to power rate. The Hawkeyes look to snap the ball 45 times a game, Oregon 70. Two different games.
“I guess, to paint a broad brush, it works in Iowa. I don’t think it would work at USC.”