Over the last three years, the top of the WNBA standings hasn’t seen much change.
The Aces and Sun finished in the top three between 2021 and 2023. This season, the Sun are poised to conclude the regular season in the same position.
Meanwhile, the Aces are two games behind the Lynx, who would be third if the season ended today.
While the last three seasons have included some variation of the Aces and Sun in the top three, there’s one stark difference. Two other franchises have seemingly traded places.
The Liberty have gone from finishing eighth in 2021 to the No. 1 team in 2024. The Sky have done the exact opposite.
Yes, the Sky were the No. 6 seed ahead of their title run in 2021. They followed it up by finishing the 2022 season with the best record in the WNBA. The Liberty finished the 2022 season seventh before catapulting themselves to the Finals in 2023.
In a 12-team league with a hard salary cap, it’s not difficult to maintain a competitive advantage. So how did the Sky fail to? How did the Liberty jump up the standings so quickly? And how long will it be until the Sky are back at the top?
The Liberty’s rise came at the expense of the Sky and Storm’s fall and years of roster tinkering that came before.
In 2023, they signed two of the biggest free agents in Breanna Stewart and Courtney Vandersloot. Both were champions with their previous teams in pursuit of a new opportunity, one that could end with them leading the Liberty to their first title.
The Storm and Mercury are examples of teams that went through one year of disaster in 2023 before executing a turnaround. The Sky sank to eighth last year, and that’s where they have remained, with the Dream threatening their spot in the playoffs.
The key question franchises have had to answer over the last two seasons is: Can we compete with the Aces?
Becky Hammon inherited a team in 2022 that was ready to compete for a title. More important than its readiness was how the roster was constructed. It had three No. 1 overall picks: Kelsey Plum (2017), A’ja Wilson (2018) and Jackie Young (2019). All three have remained with the organization, and the Aces added top point guard Chelsea Gray in free agency.
In response to the Aces developing a juggernaut through the draft, teams around the league have built through free agency. Others have been forced to accept their fate and make their best attempt at a methodical approach focusing on draft picks. The Sky have landed somewhere in between as a result of moves executed by old staff members and a recovery mission being attempted by general manager Jeff Pagliocca.
The Storm and Mercury were able to jump from the bottom of the standings to the top half in one year because of their franchise’s aggressiveness and investment from ownership. As a result of new practice facilities and a commitment from general managers and ownership to create a winning environment, both teams were able to sign top free agents. The Storm secured Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike, while the Mercury signed Natasha Cloud and then acquired Kahleah Copper through a trade at her request.
Since taking the job as GM last fall, Pagliocca has maintained that he expects to execute a quick turnaround for the Sky. Drafting rookies Kamilla Cardoso and Angel Reese as a result of predraft trades, including Copper’s, was a good start. But the upcoming free-agency period will still be an uphill battle for the first-year GM.
The Sky’s announcement of their new practice facility — which won’t be available until 2026 — will give Pagliocca something to sell to free agents. He will also have four first-round draft picks over the next two years to potentially package in deals.
But the best thing Pagliocca could do for the Sky is make a concrete decision. Will the Sky be a team that goes the microwave route, focusing on rebuilding through trades and free agency? Or will they be one that accepts multiple seasons at the bottom, allowing them to build through the draft?
Pagliocca has said he’s focused on the former. But back-to-back seasons just narrowly making the playoffs will do the team no good if, similar to the Liberty, they aren’t able to land those top-tier free agents.